Apple's decision to deprioritize Vision Pro development in favor of smart glasses has driven the 96.7% market-implied probability against a Vision Pro 2 release before 2027. Consistent reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and supply-chain analysts shows the category remains on ice after the M5 refresh in late 2025, with engineers reassigned and multiple lighter/cheaper prototypes like Vision Air canceled. The latest N224 concepts under evaluation remain in early testing, with any all-in-one successor targeted for late 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. Traders weigh the short remaining window in 2026 against this timeline, though an accelerated prototype breakthrough or redefined market criteria could still introduce limited uncertainty.