Name: Polymarket Historical Prediction Accuracy
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Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are — not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

Brier Score vs Volume

Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

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Frequently Asked Questions

All metrics are calculated from resolved polymarkets, using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.

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Overview of the Grammy Awards, their history, and connection to Polymarket predictions.

About the Grammys

Album of the Year is the Grammys' crown jewel, honoring an entire body of work rather than just one song. Presented since 1959, it goes to the artist, producers, songwriters, engineers, and mixers who contributed significantly. It's not about sales or charts; it's pure artistic excellence across genres. Think Taylor Swift's "Midnights," Lauryn Hill's "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill," or Stevie Wonder's classics; winners often define eras. Albums need at least five tracks and 15 minutes, or 30 minutes total, to qualify. It's a team effort award, celebrating the magic of a cohesive project that pushes music forward. On Polymarket, odds for Album of the Year fluctuate as buzz builds for Grammy nominations like "Debí Tirar Más Fotos" by Bad Bunny and "GNX" by Kendrick Lamar.

Album of the Year

Best New Artist shines on rising stars who've broken through in the eligibility year. Since 1959, it's for performers who've released their first major work and had a cultural impact, not just one hit. Winners like Olivia Rodrigo, Chappell Roan, or Sam Smith often launch massive careers. Eligibility: first-time noms only for this category, and a breakthrough that reshapes the scene. Groups qualify too, like The Beatles once did. It's about fresh talent shaking up music. Polymarket odds on Grammy nominees for Best New Artist category reflect hype and momentum on emerging voices like Olivia Dean and Leon Thomas.

Best New Artist

Real-time predictions and odds for every Grammy category from The World's Largest Prediction Market™

2026 Grammy Awards Predictions

Grammy 2026 Odds

See real-time Grammy Awards predictions for every category. Track live odds for Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and more on the world's largest prediction market.

Grammys predictions & odds (2026) | Polymarket

Record of the Year spotlights a single standout track, rewarding the performance and production magic behind it. Unlike Album of the Year, this one's for one song only, going to the artist, producers, engineers, and mixers who nailed the recording. It's been around since the first Grammys in 1959, focusing on technical brilliance and overall vibe, not lyrics alone. Classics like Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You," or Michael Jackson's "Beat It" have won, blending artistry with studio wizardry. No sales required, just excellence. It differs from Song of the Year by honoring the full sound, not just composition. Polymarket lets you trade on Grammy nominations and predictions for Record of the Year like "DTMF" by Bad Bunny, "Luther" by Kendrick Lamar & SZA, and "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter. Will a viral hit or emotional ballad edge out the competition?

Record of the Year

Song of the Year is all about the craft of writing: melody, lyrics, and that hook you can't forget. Awarded since 1959, it goes straight to the songwriter(s), not the performer or producers. It's for a single track that captures the year's spirit, regardless of genre. Think Adele's "Hello," Beyoncé's "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)," "Royals" by Lorde, or Ed Sheeran's "Thinking Out Loud." These songs often become timeless anthems. Songs must be new or newly prominent, with both words and music. It stands apart from Record of the Year, which celebrates the recording itself. On Polymarket, track shifting odds on Grammy nominations for Song of the Year like "Golden" by Ejae & Mark Sonnenblick and songwriters Huntrix: Ejae, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami and "Abracadabra" by Lady Gaga, Henry Walter, & Andrew Watt. It's a nod to the unsung heroes behind the hits.

Song of the Year

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Overview of the Academy Awards, their history, and connection to Polymarket predictions.

About the Oscars

The 2026 Best Actor race features five performances spanning generational talent and varied genres. Timothée Chalamet delivers a physically committed, fully inhabited turn as an eccentric ping-pong prodigy in Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio brings vulnerability to a troubled artist in Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another, while Michael B. Jordan channels commanding physicality and emotional grit in Ryan Coogler's Sinners. Wagner Moura adds coiled tension to his role in The Secret Agent, and Ethan Hawke brings quiet intensity as a musician in Blue Moon. It's a category where youth and experience collide, with each nominee offering a distinct vision of what a transformative lead performance can look like with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Actor

The 2026 Best Actress category highlights range and emotional fearlessness across five striking performances. Jessie Buckley delivers a viscerally powerful portrayal of maternal grief in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, while Rose Byrne brings sharp comic timing to the darkly funny If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Emma Stone offers another eccentric, magnetic turn in Yorgos Lanthimos's Bugonia, and Renate Reinsve explores self-reinvention with subtlety in Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. Kate Hudson channels raw passion in Song Sung Blue. It's a lineup that rewards performers who disappear into their roles, with each nominee bringing a distinctly personal approach to complex, layered characters with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Actress

The Best Director field at the 2026 Oscars showcases a diverse slate of filmmakers working across tones and traditions. Paul Thomas Anderson is nominated for One Battle After Another, bringing his trademark layered character work. Ryan Coogler's Sinners fuses muscular action filmmaking with social commentary, while Josh Safdie brings frenetic energy to Marty Supreme, building on the controlled chaos that defined Uncut Gems. Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value delivers introspective, distinctly Nordic storytelling. Chloé Zhao rounds out the category with Hamnet, adding her naturalistic, empathetic eye to the lineup. It's a category that rewards bold vision — and every nominee here brings a distinct filmmaking voice with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Director

The Best Original Screenplay category at the 2026 Oscars rewards scripts that carve out fresh narrative territory without source material to lean on. Ryan Coogler's Sinners weaves themes of justice and identity into a tightly constructed narrative, while Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme crackles with offbeat wit and restless energy. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value offers a philosophical exploration of intimacy, and Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident probes fate and politics with characteristic moral precision. Robert Kaplow's Blue Moon brings a lyrical sensibility to its portrait of a musician's world. It's a category that spotlights cinema's most inventive voices — and this year's field is especially strong with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Original Screenplay

The Best Picture race at the 2026 Oscars features a genre-spanning lineup of 10 nominees, with Ryan Coogler's Sinners earning a record-breaking 16 nominations overall. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan, bring distinct visions of character-driven storytelling. Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, with Steven Spielberg among its producers, offers a poetic meditation on grief and creativity, while Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme channels sharp indie energy through Timothée Chalamet's portrayal of an eccentric ping-pong prodigy. Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value, Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein, Yorgos Lanthimos's Bugonia — starring Emma Stone — Joseph Kosinski's F1 starring Brad Pitt, Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent, and Train Dreams each bring auteur-level ambition or crowd-pleasing spectacle to the slate. It's a field that balances spectacle with substance, reflecting the Academy's appetite for both bold personal filmmaking and crowd-reaching narratives with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Picture

Real-time predictions and odds for every Oscar category from The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Oscars 2026 Odds

Oscar 2026 Odds

See real-time Academy Awards predictions for every category. Track live odds for Best Picture, Best Director, and more on the world's largest prediction market.

Oscars predictions & odds (2026) | Polymarket

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Trade on Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and more.

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2026 Governor Race

2026 House Midterm Elections

Key developments in 2026

Learn about the 2026 United States midterm elections, including Senate, House, and gubernatorial races.

2026 Senate Midterm Elections

About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

most pivotal markets

The most competitive and highest-volume races across all chambers. These toss-up and lean races are the battleground contests that will determine control of Congress, with markets reflecting real-time shifts in each candidate's odds based on polling, fundraising, and campaign developments.

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2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

Live prediction market odds for every 2026 U.S. midterm election race including Senate, House, gubernatorial, and referendum markets.

Midterms 2026 odds

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Alongside candidate races, the 2026 midterm cycle will feature ballot measures and referendums that give voters a direct say on policy issues ranging from abortion rights and marijuana legalization to tax policy and election reform. These markets track the likelihood of passage for the most consequential ballot initiatives across key states, offering real-time odds as campaigns evolve and public opinion shifts.

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