Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump mentioning German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (94% implied probability), reflecting ongoing tensions over Germany's stance on a U.S.-led naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran escalations, following their March bilateral meeting and recent rejections from Berlin. High odds also price in Rep. Thomas Massie (65%) due to Trump's March rally attacks and primary endorsement of his challenger amid midterm positioning and legislative disputes; border czar Tom Homan (57%), active in April 14 press briefings on immigration and church criticism; and Hillary Clinton (55%), a perennial rhetorical target. With half of April elapsed and rallies like the April 17 Phoenix event boosting rhetoric, traders anticipate continued mentions of foreign policy figures, domestic critics, and appointees ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$88,859 거래량
2026.04.30
Friedrich / Merz
71%
Rand Paul
49%
Bernie
61%
Hillary
55%
Homan
57%
Machado
53%
Zohran / Mamdani
41%
Massie
66%
Delcy
49%
Elon / Musk
44%
Paxton
48%
Schumer
46%
Kavanaugh
51%
Talarico
38%
Nicki / Minaj
34%
Leavitt
17%
Bolsonaro
6%
Jensen / Huang
45%
Gianni / Infantino
40%
$88,859 거래량
Friedrich / Merz
$56 거래량
71%
Rand Paul
$664 거래량
49%
Bernie
$0 거래량
61%
Hillary
$84 거래량
55%
Homan
$627 거래량
57%
Machado
$18 거래량
53%
Zohran / Mamdani
$52 거래량
41%
Massie
$287 거래량
66%
Delcy
$143 거래량
49%
Elon / Musk
$40 거래량
44%
Paxton
$0 거래량
48%
Schumer
$31 거래량
46%
Kavanaugh
$19 거래량
51%
Talarico
$14 거래량
38%
Nicki / Minaj
$53 거래량
34%
Leavitt
$129 거래량
17%
Bolsonaro
$736 거래량
6%
Jensen / Huang
$43 거래량
45%
Gianni / Infantino
$729 거래량
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump mentioning German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (94% implied probability), reflecting ongoing tensions over Germany's stance on a U.S.-led naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran escalations, following their March bilateral meeting and recent rejections from Berlin. High odds also price in Rep. Thomas Massie (65%) due to Trump's March rally attacks and primary endorsement of his challenger amid midterm positioning and legislative disputes; border czar Tom Homan (57%), active in April 14 press briefings on immigration and church criticism; and Hillary Clinton (55%), a perennial rhetorical target. With half of April elapsed and rallies like the April 17 Phoenix event boosting rhetoric, traders anticipate continued mentions of foreign policy figures, domestic critics, and appointees ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
마켓 개설일: Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$88,859종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump mentioning German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (94% implied probability), reflecting ongoing tensions over Germany's stance on a U.S.-led naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran escalations, following their March bilateral meeting and recent rejections from Berlin. High odds also price in Rep. Thomas Massie (65%) due to Trump's March rally attacks and primary endorsement of his challenger amid midterm positioning and legislative disputes; border czar Tom Homan (57%), active in April 14 press briefings on immigration and church criticism; and Hillary Clinton (55%), a perennial rhetorical target. With half of April elapsed and rallies like the April 17 Phoenix event boosting rhetoric, traders anticipate continued mentions of foreign policy figures, domestic critics, and appointees ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
거래량
$88,859종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump mentioning German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (94% implied probability), reflecting ongoing tensions over Germany's stance on a U.S.-led naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran escalations, following their March bilateral meeting and recent rejections from Berlin. High odds also price in Rep. Thomas Massie (65%) due to Trump's March rally attacks and primary endorsement of his challenger amid midterm positioning and legislative disputes; border czar Tom Homan (57%), active in April 14 press briefings on immigration and church criticism; and Hillary Clinton (55%), a perennial rhetorical target. With half of April elapsed and rallies like the April 17 Phoenix event boosting rhetoric, traders anticipate continued mentions of foreign policy figures, domestic critics, and appointees ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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