Recent April polls from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37%, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff absent a majority on October 4. The narrowing gap reflects Flávio's rising support amid Lula's government approval dip to around 43%, high undecided rates (11-19%), and distant third-place showings for rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%). Simulated runoffs depict a statistical tie, underscoring a competitive race. Traders weigh ongoing volatility, candidate registrations due mid-August, and potential campaign debates as pivotal ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$274,531 거래량
2026.10.04
플라비오 보우소나루
80%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
79%
페르난두 아다지
14%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
5%
미셸 볼소나루
4%
자이르 보우소나루
4%
$274,531 거래량
플라비오 보우소나루
$16,268 거래량
80%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
$112,723 거래량
79%
페르난두 아다지
$48,291 거래량
14%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
$67,049 거래량
5%
미셸 볼소나루
$20,718 거래량
4%
자이르 보우소나루
$9,481 거래량
4%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April polls from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37%, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff absent a majority on October 4. The narrowing gap reflects Flávio's rising support amid Lula's government approval dip to around 43%, high undecided rates (11-19%), and distant third-place showings for rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%). Simulated runoffs depict a statistical tie, underscoring a competitive race. Traders weigh ongoing volatility, candidate registrations due mid-August, and potential campaign debates as pivotal ahead of the general election.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
거래량
$274,531종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April polls from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37%, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff absent a majority on October 4. The narrowing gap reflects Flávio's rising support amid Lula's government approval dip to around 43%, high undecided rates (11-19%), and distant third-place showings for rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%). Simulated runoffs depict a statistical tie, underscoring a competitive race. Traders weigh ongoing volatility, candidate registrations due mid-August, and potential campaign debates as pivotal ahead of the general election.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$274,531종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April polls from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, Futura, and Ideia show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37%, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff absent a majority on October 4. The narrowing gap reflects Flávio's rising support amid Lula's government approval dip to around 43%, high undecided rates (11-19%), and distant third-place showings for rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%). Simulated runoffs depict a statistical tie, underscoring a competitive race. Traders weigh ongoing volatility, candidate registrations due mid-August, and potential campaign debates as pivotal ahead of the general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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