Amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports imposed on April 13 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, Tehran has escalated threats of retaliation, vowing to sink U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, strike regional U.S. bases, and target infrastructure in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—though no major Iranian military actions have materialized since early April missile barrages on Tel Aviv. Reports on April 18 indicated Iranian attempts to close the Strait, heightening tensions as Pentagon warnings noted ships "going dark." Stalled U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan and Trump's April 16 claim that the war is "basically over" leave traders focused on potential preemptive strikes or proxy escalations before the April 30 deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$481,374 거래량
2026.04.30
루와이스 정유소
16%
라스 타누라
15%
라스 라판 산업 도시
12%
합샨 유전/가공 단지
9%
가와르 유전
8%
쿠라이스 유전
8%
레비아탄 가스전
7%
사파니야 유전
7%
압카이크 원유 처리 시설
7%
부르즈 할리파
5%
알 주르 정유소
4%
디모나(시몬 페레스 네게브 핵연구소)
1%
$481,374 거래량
루와이스 정유소
$41,710 거래량
16%
라스 타누라
$38,704 거래량
15%
라스 라판 산업 도시
$37,653 거래량
12%
합샨 유전/가공 단지
$47,952 거래량
9%
가와르 유전
$12,578 거래량
8%
쿠라이스 유전
$15,170 거래량
8%
레비아탄 가스전
$8,398 거래량
7%
사파니야 유전
$11,787 거래량
7%
압카이크 원유 처리 시설
$38,612 거래량
7%
부르즈 할리파
$9,335 거래량
5%
알 주르 정유소
$30,904 거래량
4%
디모나(시몬 페레스 네게브 핵연구소)
$85,382 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports imposed on April 13 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, Tehran has escalated threats of retaliation, vowing to sink U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, strike regional U.S. bases, and target infrastructure in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—though no major Iranian military actions have materialized since early April missile barrages on Tel Aviv. Reports on April 18 indicated Iranian attempts to close the Strait, heightening tensions as Pentagon warnings noted ships "going dark." Stalled U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan and Trump's April 16 claim that the war is "basically over" leave traders focused on potential preemptive strikes or proxy escalations before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$481,374종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports imposed on April 13 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, Tehran has escalated threats of retaliation, vowing to sink U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, strike regional U.S. bases, and target infrastructure in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—though no major Iranian military actions have materialized since early April missile barrages on Tel Aviv. Reports on April 18 indicated Iranian attempts to close the Strait, heightening tensions as Pentagon warnings noted ships "going dark." Stalled U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan and Trump's April 16 claim that the war is "basically over" leave traders focused on potential preemptive strikes or proxy escalations before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
거래량
$481,374종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports imposed on April 13 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, Tehran has escalated threats of retaliation, vowing to sink U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, strike regional U.S. bases, and target infrastructure in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—though no major Iranian military actions have materialized since early April missile barrages on Tel Aviv. Reports on April 18 indicated Iranian attempts to close the Strait, heightening tensions as Pentagon warnings noted ships "going dark." Stalled U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan and Trump's April 16 claim that the war is "basically over" leave traders focused on potential preemptive strikes or proxy escalations before the April 30 deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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