Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 reflects optimism from recent indirect negotiations in Islamabad on April 12, where talks lasted 21 hours without agreement but mediators reported significant progress on curbing Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpile. President Trump's statements claiming Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, alongside Tehran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid a fragile ceasefire, have driven the 66.5% Yes probability higher. Sticking points remain, including the duration of any enrichment suspension—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—and sanctions relief, with no date set for the next round but mediators pushing urgently before potential ceasefire expiration.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,229,305 거래량
$1,229,305 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$1,229,305 거래량
$1,229,305 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 reflects optimism from recent indirect negotiations in Islamabad on April 12, where talks lasted 21 hours without agreement but mediators reported significant progress on curbing Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpile. President Trump's statements claiming Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, alongside Tehran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid a fragile ceasefire, have driven the 66.5% Yes probability higher. Sticking points remain, including the duration of any enrichment suspension—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—and sanctions relief, with no date set for the next round but mediators pushing urgently before potential ceasefire expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$1,229,305종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 reflects optimism from recent indirect negotiations in Islamabad on April 12, where talks lasted 21 hours without agreement but mediators reported significant progress on curbing Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpile. President Trump's statements claiming Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, alongside Tehran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid a fragile ceasefire, have driven the 66.5% Yes probability higher. Sticking points remain, including the duration of any enrichment suspension—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—and sanctions relief, with no date set for the next round but mediators pushing urgently before potential ceasefire expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$1,229,305종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 reflects optimism from recent indirect negotiations in Islamabad on April 12, where talks lasted 21 hours without agreement but mediators reported significant progress on curbing Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpile. President Trump's statements claiming Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, alongside Tehran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid a fragile ceasefire, have driven the 66.5% Yes probability higher. Sticking points remain, including the duration of any enrichment suspension—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—and sanctions relief, with no date set for the next round but mediators pushing urgently before potential ceasefire expiration.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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