Amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian military sources reported on April 17 that missile launchers were activated and aimed at predetermined Israeli targets, with an attack planned for 8 PM local time but stood down only after a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon took effect hours earlier. Tensions remain high over Iran's repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran attributes to US blockade violations, alongside threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for strikes on Hezbollah and potential escalation toward Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain for providing logistical support to US operations. Traders monitor upcoming ceasefire extension negotiations and any Hezbollah-Israel flare-ups, which could trigger Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes before the April 30 resolution deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$4,344,636 거래량
2026.04.30
바레인
20%
카타르
15%
요르단
7%
오만
4%
아프가니스탄
3%
레바논
3%
키프로스
3%
시리아
2%
터키
2%
예멘
2%
아제르바이잔
1%
파키스탄
1%
폴란드
1%
이탈리아
1%
아르메니아
1%
프랑스
1%
우크라이나
1%
조지아
1%
영국
1%
독일
1%
헝가리
1%
인도
1%
스페인
<1%
$4,344,636 거래량
바레인
$218,948 거래량
20%
카타르
$92,006 거래량
15%
요르단
$13,748 거래량
7%
오만
$69,320 거래량
4%
아프가니스탄
$1,891 거래량
3%
레바논
$44,922 거래량
3%
키프로스
$19,303 거래량
3%
시리아
$18,691 거래량
2%
터키
$22,053 거래량
2%
예멘
$10,082 거래량
2%
아제르바이잔
$44,190 거래량
1%
파키스탄
$22,814 거래량
1%
폴란드
$37,567 거래량
1%
이탈리아
$1,432 거래량
1%
아르메니아
$4,097 거래량
1%
프랑스
$42,876 거래량
1%
우크라이나
$14,864 거래량
1%
조지아
$9,059 거래량
1%
영국
$25,777 거래량
1%
독일
$19,599 거래량
1%
헝가리
$15,181 거래량
1%
인도
$20,932 거래량
1%
스페인
$8,156 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian military sources reported on April 17 that missile launchers were activated and aimed at predetermined Israeli targets, with an attack planned for 8 PM local time but stood down only after a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon took effect hours earlier. Tensions remain high over Iran's repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran attributes to US blockade violations, alongside threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for strikes on Hezbollah and potential escalation toward Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain for providing logistical support to US operations. Traders monitor upcoming ceasefire extension negotiations and any Hezbollah-Israel flare-ups, which could trigger Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes before the April 30 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
거래량
$4,344,636종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian military sources reported on April 17 that missile launchers were activated and aimed at predetermined Israeli targets, with an attack planned for 8 PM local time but stood down only after a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon took effect hours earlier. Tensions remain high over Iran's repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran attributes to US blockade violations, alongside threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for strikes on Hezbollah and potential escalation toward Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain for providing logistical support to US operations. Traders monitor upcoming ceasefire extension negotiations and any Hezbollah-Israel flare-ups, which could trigger Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes before the April 30 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$4,344,636종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iranian military sources reported on April 17 that missile launchers were activated and aimed at predetermined Israeli targets, with an attack planned for 8 PM local time but stood down only after a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon took effect hours earlier. Tensions remain high over Iran's repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran attributes to US blockade violations, alongside threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for strikes on Hezbollah and potential escalation toward Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain for providing logistical support to US operations. Traders monitor upcoming ceasefire extension negotiations and any Hezbollah-Israel flare-ups, which could trigger Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes before the April 30 resolution deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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