Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent events under international norms, and no country has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata since this market opened. Ongoing bilateral frictions, including public criticism from nations such as Iran over policy disputes and Strait of Hormuz incentives, have not escalated to formal expulsion steps. Canada’s prime minister has explicitly ruled out such measures in response to recent comments, while many U.S. ambassadorial posts already operate under chargés d’affaires following domestic recalls that reduced the profile of potential host-government disputes. Traders therefore price continuity in formal diplomatic relations through year-end at 72% for No, absent a major escalation or reciprocal cycle that would shift the current consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$16,863 거래량
$16,863 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$16,863 거래량
$16,863 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent events under international norms, and no country has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata since this market opened. Ongoing bilateral frictions, including public criticism from nations such as Iran over policy disputes and Strait of Hormuz incentives, have not escalated to formal expulsion steps. Canada’s prime minister has explicitly ruled out such measures in response to recent comments, while many U.S. ambassadorial posts already operate under chargés d’affaires following domestic recalls that reduced the profile of potential host-government disputes. Traders therefore price continuity in formal diplomatic relations through year-end at 72% for No, absent a major escalation or reciprocal cycle that would shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
거래량
$16,863종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent events under international norms, and no country has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata since this market opened. Ongoing bilateral frictions, including public criticism from nations such as Iran over policy disputes and Strait of Hormuz incentives, have not escalated to formal expulsion steps. Canada’s prime minister has explicitly ruled out such measures in response to recent comments, while many U.S. ambassadorial posts already operate under chargés d’affaires following domestic recalls that reduced the profile of potential host-government disputes. Traders therefore price continuity in formal diplomatic relations through year-end at 72% for No, absent a major escalation or reciprocal cycle that would shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$16,863종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent events under international norms, and no country has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata since this market opened. Ongoing bilateral frictions, including public criticism from nations such as Iran over policy disputes and Strait of Hormuz incentives, have not escalated to formal expulsion steps. Canada’s prime minister has explicitly ruled out such measures in response to recent comments, while many U.S. ambassadorial posts already operate under chargés d’affaires following domestic recalls that reduced the profile of potential host-government disputes. Traders therefore price continuity in formal diplomatic relations through year-end at 72% for No, absent a major escalation or reciprocal cycle that would shift the current consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문