Despite a partial ordered departure of non-emergency U.S. personnel from the Beirut embassy in February amid Israel-Hezbollah border clashes and Iranian proxy threats, core diplomatic staff have maintained limited operations, including emergency passport services, through recent security alerts as late as April 3. A U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 16, has held without major violations, easing immediate escalation risks and reinforcing trader consensus at 98.4% against full evacuation by April 30. High confidence stems from the absence of State Department directives for complete withdrawal and stable embassy functionality, though a ceasefire collapse, renewed airstrikes, or direct attacks on U.S. assets could prompt rapid reversal.