Congress's July 2025 increase of the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion provides substantial headroom, with total national debt at approximately $39 trillion as of early May 2026, fueling trader consensus at 95% implied probability against a U.S. default by year-end 2027. This aligns with historical precedent, where Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917, often via bipartisan deals or reconciliation to avert catastrophe, bolstered by Treasury's extraordinary measures during brinkmanship. Recent CBO projections highlight persistent deficits driving debt growth, but no imminent breach looms until mid-2027 per fiscal trackers. Realistic shifts could stem from severe gridlock, prolonged government shutdowns, or unforeseen economic shocks overwhelming procedural safeguards like continuing resolutions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
2027년까지 미국 채무 불이행?
예
$14,924 거래량
$14,924 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$14,924 거래량
$14,924 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress's July 2025 increase of the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion provides substantial headroom, with total national debt at approximately $39 trillion as of early May 2026, fueling trader consensus at 95% implied probability against a U.S. default by year-end 2027. This aligns with historical precedent, where Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917, often via bipartisan deals or reconciliation to avert catastrophe, bolstered by Treasury's extraordinary measures during brinkmanship. Recent CBO projections highlight persistent deficits driving debt growth, but no imminent breach looms until mid-2027 per fiscal trackers. Realistic shifts could stem from severe gridlock, prolonged government shutdowns, or unforeseen economic shocks overwhelming procedural safeguards like continuing resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
거래량
$14,924종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress's July 2025 increase of the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion provides substantial headroom, with total national debt at approximately $39 trillion as of early May 2026, fueling trader consensus at 95% implied probability against a U.S. default by year-end 2027. This aligns with historical precedent, where Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917, often via bipartisan deals or reconciliation to avert catastrophe, bolstered by Treasury's extraordinary measures during brinkmanship. Recent CBO projections highlight persistent deficits driving debt growth, but no imminent breach looms until mid-2027 per fiscal trackers. Realistic shifts could stem from severe gridlock, prolonged government shutdowns, or unforeseen economic shocks overwhelming procedural safeguards like continuing resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
거래량
$14,924종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress's July 2025 increase of the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion provides substantial headroom, with total national debt at approximately $39 trillion as of early May 2026, fueling trader consensus at 95% implied probability against a U.S. default by year-end 2027. This aligns with historical precedent, where Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling over 100 times since 1917, often via bipartisan deals or reconciliation to avert catastrophe, bolstered by Treasury's extraordinary measures during brinkmanship. Recent CBO projections highlight persistent deficits driving debt growth, but no imminent breach looms until mid-2027 per fiscal trackers. Realistic shifts could stem from severe gridlock, prolonged government shutdowns, or unforeseen economic shocks overwhelming procedural safeguards like continuing resolutions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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