Recent Iranian restrictions on western airspace sectors, including a May 22 NOTAM suspending civil flight permits until at least May 25 amid reports of possible renewed U.S. strikes, have shaped trader assessments for full or sustained closures. Ongoing diplomatic mediation between Tehran and Washington continues alongside elevated military alert levels, with only a limited number of airports operating under tightened rules. These measures follow earlier 2026 episodes of partial and regional shutdowns tied to Israel-Iran exchanges and U.S. involvement, which previously disrupted commercial aviation across multiple Middle East flight information regions. Traders weigh the balance between de-escalation signals and persistent risks of further escalation that could prompt broader NOTAMs or full airspace prohibitions before key resolution windows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports
May 24 surges to 99%90%
By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.
Iran reopens airspace after five-hour closure; five carriers resume services
After a brief five-hour airspace closure, Iran reopened its airspace with five carriers resuming services, marking a significant market event. This reopening caused a sharp price drop across all outcomes.
Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions
May 31 surges to 96%58%
In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.
Iran issues NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran FIR until May 25
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, allowing operations only during daylight hours at eight specific airports. This partial closure raised concerns about a major airspace shutdown but did not fully meet the market's criteria for a broad closure affecting multiple key airports across Iran.
Iran closes western airspace amid rising US tensions, restricting flights to daylight hours
May 24 drops to 14%12%
Iran temporarily closed its western airspace from May 22 to May 25, suspending all civil flight permits in the western sector of the Tehran FIR, with only eight airports operational under daylight-only restrictions. This closure was amid heightened regional tensions and security concerns but was limited in scope and duration, affecting market expectations for a full major closure.
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests
May 24 plunges to 21%18%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.
Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests
May 21 plunges to 4%15%
Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.
Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat
The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire
May 31 drops to 30%11%
Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.
Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 49%12%
Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation
May 21 drops to 39%7%
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.
Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests
May 18 dips to 10%4%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.
Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens
June 30 plunges to 47%29%
Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.
Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure
May 31 jumps to 33%5%
Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure
May 18 dips to 12%2%
Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.
UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack
May 27 surges to 98%67%
The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE
May 24 surges to 96%70%
Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting partial airspace closures in Gulf
June 30 plunges to 36%24%
On May 4, Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks on the UAE, causing the UAE to partially close its airspace until at least May 11. This escalation led to flight cancellations and rerouting by several airlines but did not involve a major closure of Iranian airspace itself. The event increased regional tensions and affected market sentiment about potential Iranian airspace closures.
Iran launches missiles and drones at UAE; UAE partially closes airspace until 11 May
May 24 drops to 17%9%
Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE prompted the UAE to partially close its airspace until 11 May 2026, causing widespread flight disruptions and cancellations. This regional escalation contributed to market volatility.
Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM
Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.
Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest
May 31 rises to 40%4%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.
Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests
Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.
Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport
May 21 plunges to 4%34%
Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights
May 27 jumps to 46%7%
Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.
No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions
May 21 plunges to 2%17%
Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.
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