Parti Québécois (PQ) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 showing PQ securing 64 seats (55-72 range) versus PLQ's 44, despite neck-and-neck polling averages of 31% PQ and 29% PLQ as of late April. The first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone regions outside Montreal, where PLQ concentrates support. Recent April Léger and Pallas Data polls confirm CAQ's collapse to 8-15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette, following François Legault's January resignation amid 26% approval lows, handing PQ a 98% modeled chance of plurality or majority in the 125-seat National Assembly. PLQ at 26.5% reflects competitive polling under leader Charles Milliard, while CAQ lingers at 8.5% amid ongoing recovery challenges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트퀘벡당 66%
PLQ 27%
퀘벡 미래 연합(CAQ) 9%
PCQ <1%
$481,602 거래량
$481,602 거래량
2026.10.05
퀘벡당
66%
PLQ
27%
퀘벡 미래 연합(CAQ)
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
퀘벡당 66%
PLQ 27%
퀘벡 미래 연합(CAQ) 9%
PCQ <1%
$481,602 거래량
$481,602 거래량
2026.10.05
퀘벡당
$50,446 거래량
66%
PLQ
$55,368 거래량
27%
퀘벡 미래 연합(CAQ)
$55,340 거래량
9%
PCQ
$153,582 거래량
<1%
PVQ
$112,853 거래량
<1%
QS
$54,013 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois (PQ) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 showing PQ securing 64 seats (55-72 range) versus PLQ's 44, despite neck-and-neck polling averages of 31% PQ and 29% PLQ as of late April. The first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone regions outside Montreal, where PLQ concentrates support. Recent April Léger and Pallas Data polls confirm CAQ's collapse to 8-15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette, following François Legault's January resignation amid 26% approval lows, handing PQ a 98% modeled chance of plurality or majority in the 125-seat National Assembly. PLQ at 26.5% reflects competitive polling under leader Charles Milliard, while CAQ lingers at 8.5% amid ongoing recovery challenges.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
마켓 개설일: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
거래량
$481,602종료일
2026.10.05마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois (PQ) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 showing PQ securing 64 seats (55-72 range) versus PLQ's 44, despite neck-and-neck polling averages of 31% PQ and 29% PLQ as of late April. The first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone regions outside Montreal, where PLQ concentrates support. Recent April Léger and Pallas Data polls confirm CAQ's collapse to 8-15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette, following François Legault's January resignation amid 26% approval lows, handing PQ a 98% modeled chance of plurality or majority in the 125-seat National Assembly. PLQ at 26.5% reflects competitive polling under leader Charles Milliard, while CAQ lingers at 8.5% amid ongoing recovery challenges.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
거래량
$481,602종료일
2026.10.05마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parti Québécois (PQ) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 showing PQ securing 64 seats (55-72 range) versus PLQ's 44, despite neck-and-neck polling averages of 31% PQ and 29% PLQ as of late April. The first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone regions outside Montreal, where PLQ concentrates support. Recent April Léger and Pallas Data polls confirm CAQ's collapse to 8-15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette, following François Legault's January resignation amid 26% approval lows, handing PQ a 98% modeled chance of plurality or majority in the 125-seat National Assembly. PLQ at 26.5% reflects competitive polling under leader Charles Milliard, while CAQ lingers at 8.5% amid ongoing recovery challenges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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