Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in a tight race between 0.0-0.5% (37% implied probability) and 0.5-1.0% (36%), driven primarily by INEGI's January 2026 IGAE contracting 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in over a year—amid declines in gross fixed investment (down 1.1%) and private consumption, signaling early-quarter weakness after Q4 2025's 0.9% rebound. Industrial activity faltered despite a modest February uptick of 0.4%, while 2025's annual GDP stagnated at 0.8%, heightening contraction risks (19%). Banxico's March rate cut reflects softening labor and demand conditions; key swing factors include pending February and March IGAE data ahead of INEGI's full Q1 release in May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.0-1.5% 35%
<0.0% 10.9%
2.0-2.5% 9.6%
1.5-2.0% 6.3%
신규
신규
2026.04.30
<0.0%
19%
0.0-0.5%
34%
0.5-1.0%
38%
1.0-1.5%
28%
1.5-2.0%
7%
2.0-2.5%
10%
>2.5%
4%
1.0-1.5% 35%
<0.0% 10.9%
2.0-2.5% 9.6%
1.5-2.0% 6.3%
신규
신규
2026.04.30
<0.0%
$431 거래량
19%
0.0-0.5%
$348 거래량
34%
0.5-1.0%
$567 거래량
38%
1.0-1.5%
$720 거래량
28%
1.5-2.0%
$408 거래량
7%
2.0-2.5%
$139 거래량
10%
>2.5%
$147 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in a tight race between 0.0-0.5% (37% implied probability) and 0.5-1.0% (36%), driven primarily by INEGI's January 2026 IGAE contracting 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in over a year—amid declines in gross fixed investment (down 1.1%) and private consumption, signaling early-quarter weakness after Q4 2025's 0.9% rebound. Industrial activity faltered despite a modest February uptick of 0.4%, while 2025's annual GDP stagnated at 0.8%, heightening contraction risks (19%). Banxico's March rate cut reflects softening labor and demand conditions; key swing factors include pending February and March IGAE data ahead of INEGI's full Q1 release in May.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
거래량
$2,759종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in a tight race between 0.0-0.5% (37% implied probability) and 0.5-1.0% (36%), driven primarily by INEGI's January 2026 IGAE contracting 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in over a year—amid declines in gross fixed investment (down 1.1%) and private consumption, signaling early-quarter weakness after Q4 2025's 0.9% rebound. Industrial activity faltered despite a modest February uptick of 0.4%, while 2025's annual GDP stagnated at 0.8%, heightening contraction risks (19%). Banxico's March rate cut reflects softening labor and demand conditions; key swing factors include pending February and March IGAE data ahead of INEGI's full Q1 release in May.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$2,759종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in a tight race between 0.0-0.5% (37% implied probability) and 0.5-1.0% (36%), driven primarily by INEGI's January 2026 IGAE contracting 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in over a year—amid declines in gross fixed investment (down 1.1%) and private consumption, signaling early-quarter weakness after Q4 2025's 0.9% rebound. Industrial activity faltered despite a modest February uptick of 0.4%, while 2025's annual GDP stagnated at 0.8%, heightening contraction risks (19%). Banxico's March rate cut reflects softening labor and demand conditions; key swing factors include pending February and March IGAE data ahead of INEGI's full Q1 release in May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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