US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$189,938 거래량
$189,938 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$189,938 거래량
$189,938 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$189,938종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$189,938종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문