US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities since early 2026, including recent operations targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Isfahan, have inflicted significant but limited damage, leaving Iran's program roughly 9-12 months from potential weapon production per US intelligence assessments as of early May. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases or seismic evidence of detonations, with ongoing demands for inspections unmet amid the war. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these degraded capabilities, stringent international sanctions, and diplomatic pressures under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, making a nuclear test before 2027 unlikely barring major escalation or breakthroughs in covert rebuilding efforts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$190,151 거래량
$190,151 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$190,151 거래량
$190,151 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities since early 2026, including recent operations targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Isfahan, have inflicted significant but limited damage, leaving Iran's program roughly 9-12 months from potential weapon production per US intelligence assessments as of early May. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases or seismic evidence of detonations, with ongoing demands for inspections unmet amid the war. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these degraded capabilities, stringent international sanctions, and diplomatic pressures under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, making a nuclear test before 2027 unlikely barring major escalation or breakthroughs in covert rebuilding efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$190,151종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities since early 2026, including recent operations targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Isfahan, have inflicted significant but limited damage, leaving Iran's program roughly 9-12 months from potential weapon production per US intelligence assessments as of early May. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases or seismic evidence of detonations, with ongoing demands for inspections unmet amid the war. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these degraded capabilities, stringent international sanctions, and diplomatic pressures under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, making a nuclear test before 2027 unlikely barring major escalation or breakthroughs in covert rebuilding efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$190,151종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities since early 2026, including recent operations targeting enrichment sites like Natanz and Isfahan, have inflicted significant but limited damage, leaving Iran's program roughly 9-12 months from potential weapon production per US intelligence assessments as of early May. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases or seismic evidence of detonations, with ongoing demands for inspections unmet amid the war. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these degraded capabilities, stringent international sanctions, and diplomatic pressures under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, making a nuclear test before 2027 unlikely barring major escalation or breakthroughs in covert rebuilding efforts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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