The retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst has created an open Iowa Class II U.S. Senate seat, with primaries set for June 2. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against former state Senator Jim Carlin through stronger fundraising and endorsements. Democratic contenders state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls remain competitive in their primary, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican tilt in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP nominee underpin the 62.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing, though the competitive hypothetical matchups and pending primary outcomes leave room for shifts based on turnout and further developments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$116,828 거래량
$116,828 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
63%
민주당
38%
$116,828 거래량
$116,828 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$53,530 거래량
63%
민주당
$63,298 거래량
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst has created an open Iowa Class II U.S. Senate seat, with primaries set for June 2. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against former state Senator Jim Carlin through stronger fundraising and endorsements. Democratic contenders state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls remain competitive in their primary, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican tilt in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP nominee underpin the 62.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing, though the competitive hypothetical matchups and pending primary outcomes leave room for shifts based on turnout and further developments.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
거래량
$116,828종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst has created an open Iowa Class II U.S. Senate seat, with primaries set for June 2. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against former state Senator Jim Carlin through stronger fundraising and endorsements. Democratic contenders state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls remain competitive in their primary, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican tilt in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP nominee underpin the 62.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing, though the competitive hypothetical matchups and pending primary outcomes leave room for shifts based on turnout and further developments.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$116,828종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst has created an open Iowa Class II U.S. Senate seat, with primaries set for June 2. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson has consolidated support against former state Senator Jim Carlin through stronger fundraising and endorsements. Democratic contenders state Representative Josh Turek and state Senator Zach Wahls remain competitive in their primary, with recent surveys showing narrow general-election margins between the likely nominees. Iowa’s consistent Republican tilt in federal races and structural advantages for the GOP nominee underpin the 62.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing, though the competitive hypothetical matchups and pending primary outcomes leave room for shifts based on turnout and further developments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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