Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term has created an open Iowa Senate seat for the November 2026 general election, drawing a competitive Republican primary field led by Rep. Ashley Hinson. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, reflecting Iowa’s partisan leanings and the party’s historical strength in holding the seat. On the Democratic side, a June 2 primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and Zach Wahls will determine the nominee, with recent polling showing Turek ahead but limited general-election data available. National Democratic investments in advertising signal efforts to contest the seat, yet the absence of an incumbent and Iowa’s voting patterns sustain the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$116,828 거래량
$116,828 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
63%
민주당
38%
$116,828 거래량
$116,828 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$53,530 거래량
63%
민주당
$63,298 거래량
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term has created an open Iowa Senate seat for the November 2026 general election, drawing a competitive Republican primary field led by Rep. Ashley Hinson. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, reflecting Iowa’s partisan leanings and the party’s historical strength in holding the seat. On the Democratic side, a June 2 primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and Zach Wahls will determine the nominee, with recent polling showing Turek ahead but limited general-election data available. National Democratic investments in advertising signal efforts to contest the seat, yet the absence of an incumbent and Iowa’s voting patterns sustain the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
거래량
$116,828종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term has created an open Iowa Senate seat for the November 2026 general election, drawing a competitive Republican primary field led by Rep. Ashley Hinson. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, reflecting Iowa’s partisan leanings and the party’s historical strength in holding the seat. On the Democratic side, a June 2 primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and Zach Wahls will determine the nominee, with recent polling showing Turek ahead but limited general-election data available. National Democratic investments in advertising signal efforts to contest the seat, yet the absence of an incumbent and Iowa’s voting patterns sustain the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$116,828종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek a third term has created an open Iowa Senate seat for the November 2026 general election, drawing a competitive Republican primary field led by Rep. Ashley Hinson. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, reflecting Iowa’s partisan leanings and the party’s historical strength in holding the seat. On the Democratic side, a June 2 primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and Zach Wahls will determine the nominee, with recent polling showing Turek ahead but limited general-election data available. National Democratic investments in advertising signal efforts to contest the seat, yet the absence of an incumbent and Iowa’s voting patterns sustain the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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