The Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the pivotal uncertainty, as the winner will challenge Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. Recent polls, including University of Houston (late April-early May) showing Paxton edging Cornyn 48%-45% and general matchups with Talarico leading both by 3-8 points amid high undecideds (up to 19%), reflect a closely contested race. Trader consensus tilts Republican at 54.5% due to Texas' historical GOP dominance, midterm turnout advantages for the president's party, and skepticism of early polling trends. A Paxton victory could energize the base and widen the gap, while Cornyn's fundraising edge or national shifts might solidify the lean.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$198,928 거래량
$198,928 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
55%
민주당
47%
$198,928 거래량
$198,928 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$110,161 거래량
55%
민주당
$88,767 거래량
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the pivotal uncertainty, as the winner will challenge Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. Recent polls, including University of Houston (late April-early May) showing Paxton edging Cornyn 48%-45% and general matchups with Talarico leading both by 3-8 points amid high undecideds (up to 19%), reflect a closely contested race. Trader consensus tilts Republican at 54.5% due to Texas' historical GOP dominance, midterm turnout advantages for the president's party, and skepticism of early polling trends. A Paxton victory could energize the base and widen the gap, while Cornyn's fundraising edge or national shifts might solidify the lean.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
거래량
$198,928종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the pivotal uncertainty, as the winner will challenge Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. Recent polls, including University of Houston (late April-early May) showing Paxton edging Cornyn 48%-45% and general matchups with Talarico leading both by 3-8 points amid high undecideds (up to 19%), reflect a closely contested race. Trader consensus tilts Republican at 54.5% due to Texas' historical GOP dominance, midterm turnout advantages for the president's party, and skepticism of early polling trends. A Paxton victory could energize the base and widen the gap, while Cornyn's fundraising edge or national shifts might solidify the lean.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$198,928종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the pivotal uncertainty, as the winner will challenge Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. Recent polls, including University of Houston (late April-early May) showing Paxton edging Cornyn 48%-45% and general matchups with Talarico leading both by 3-8 points amid high undecideds (up to 19%), reflect a closely contested race. Trader consensus tilts Republican at 54.5% due to Texas' historical GOP dominance, midterm turnout advantages for the president's party, and skepticism of early polling trends. A Paxton victory could energize the base and widen the gap, while Cornyn's fundraising edge or national shifts might solidify the lean.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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