Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary for the open Illinois Senate seat following Dick Durbin’s retirement, positioning her as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Illinois’s longstanding Democratic tilt, combined with Stratton’s role as lieutenant governor and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, underpins trader consensus reflected in her 91.5% implied probability. Tracy’s primary win offers limited statewide appeal in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2010. Late developments such as major scandals, significant shifts in national political conditions, or health-related issues for either candidate represent the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,497 거래량
$25,497 거래량
2026.11.03
줄리아나 스트래튼 (민주당)
91%
돈 트레이시 (공화당)
5%
$25,497 거래량
$25,497 거래량
2026.11.03
줄리아나 스트래튼 (민주당)
$12,850 거래량
91%
돈 트레이시 (공화당)
$12,647 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary for the open Illinois Senate seat following Dick Durbin’s retirement, positioning her as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Illinois’s longstanding Democratic tilt, combined with Stratton’s role as lieutenant governor and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, underpins trader consensus reflected in her 91.5% implied probability. Tracy’s primary win offers limited statewide appeal in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2010. Late developments such as major scandals, significant shifts in national political conditions, or health-related issues for either candidate represent the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$25,497종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary for the open Illinois Senate seat following Dick Durbin’s retirement, positioning her as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Illinois’s longstanding Democratic tilt, combined with Stratton’s role as lieutenant governor and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, underpins trader consensus reflected in her 91.5% implied probability. Tracy’s primary win offers limited statewide appeal in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2010. Late developments such as major scandals, significant shifts in national political conditions, or health-related issues for either candidate represent the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$25,497종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary for the open Illinois Senate seat following Dick Durbin’s retirement, positioning her as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Don Tracy. Illinois’s longstanding Democratic tilt, combined with Stratton’s role as lieutenant governor and backing from Governor JB Pritzker, underpins trader consensus reflected in her 91.5% implied probability. Tracy’s primary win offers limited statewide appeal in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2010. Late developments such as major scandals, significant shifts in national political conditions, or health-related issues for either candidate represent the primary factors that could realistically narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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