Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 12th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Republican tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the November general election as solidly Republican, citing the district's rural southern Illinois composition and voter patterns that have limited Democratic performance. Bost's substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Julie Fortier further reinforces this positioning. Trader consensus at over 90 percent probability for a Republican victory aligns with these structural advantages. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, a sharp national Democratic surge, or health-related developments could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,126 거래량
$18,126 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
94%
민주당
7%
$18,126 거래량
$18,126 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,790 거래량
94%
민주당
$10,336 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 12th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Republican tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the November general election as solidly Republican, citing the district's rural southern Illinois composition and voter patterns that have limited Democratic performance. Bost's substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Julie Fortier further reinforces this positioning. Trader consensus at over 90 percent probability for a Republican victory aligns with these structural advantages. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, a sharp national Democratic surge, or health-related developments could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$18,126종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 12th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Republican tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the November general election as solidly Republican, citing the district's rural southern Illinois composition and voter patterns that have limited Democratic performance. Bost's substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Julie Fortier further reinforces this positioning. Trader consensus at over 90 percent probability for a Republican victory aligns with these structural advantages. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, a sharp national Democratic surge, or health-related developments could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,126종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 12th congressional district, a seat with a pronounced Republican tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the November general election as solidly Republican, citing the district's rural southern Illinois composition and voter patterns that have limited Democratic performance. Bost's substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Julie Fortier further reinforces this positioning. Trader consensus at over 90 percent probability for a Republican victory aligns with these structural advantages. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, a sharp national Democratic surge, or health-related developments could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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