Trader consensus favors seven countries at 32% implied probability for total US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters through mid-April—Yemen against Houthi rebels, Syria and Iraq targeting militias and ISIS remnants, Somalia for al-Shabaab strikes, Iran amid the February-launched joint US-Israeli campaign now in ceasefire, and Venezuela following January incursions against Maduro-linked networks. The tight race with eight (24%) and nine (14%) stems from uncertainty over escalation: potential new airstrikes on Iranian proxies in additional nations like Nigeria or Lebanon, counternarcotics operations expanding to Mexico or Colombia cartels, or responses to North Korean provocations. Congressional oversight, diplomatic talks, or de-escalation signals could cap at seven, while fresh attacks would push toward nine or more before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7 31.6%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$973,941 거래량
$973,941 거래량
2026.12.31
6
10%
7
32%
8
24%
9
14%
10
9%
11
5%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
1%
7 31.6%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$973,941 거래량
$973,941 거래량
2026.12.31
6
$423,302 거래량
10%
7
$6,863 거래량
32%
8
$105,371 거래량
24%
9
$11,435 거래량
14%
10
$11,969 거래량
9%
11
$17,452 거래량
5%
12
$28,463 거래량
3%
13
$47,269 거래량
2%
14
$42,131 거래량
1%
15+
$119,843 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 32% implied probability for total US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters through mid-April—Yemen against Houthi rebels, Syria and Iraq targeting militias and ISIS remnants, Somalia for al-Shabaab strikes, Iran amid the February-launched joint US-Israeli campaign now in ceasefire, and Venezuela following January incursions against Maduro-linked networks. The tight race with eight (24%) and nine (14%) stems from uncertainty over escalation: potential new airstrikes on Iranian proxies in additional nations like Nigeria or Lebanon, counternarcotics operations expanding to Mexico or Colombia cartels, or responses to North Korean provocations. Congressional oversight, diplomatic talks, or de-escalation signals could cap at seven, while fresh attacks would push toward nine or more before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
거래량
$973,941종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 32% implied probability for total US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters through mid-April—Yemen against Houthi rebels, Syria and Iraq targeting militias and ISIS remnants, Somalia for al-Shabaab strikes, Iran amid the February-launched joint US-Israeli campaign now in ceasefire, and Venezuela following January incursions against Maduro-linked networks. The tight race with eight (24%) and nine (14%) stems from uncertainty over escalation: potential new airstrikes on Iranian proxies in additional nations like Nigeria or Lebanon, counternarcotics operations expanding to Mexico or Colombia cartels, or responses to North Korean provocations. Congressional oversight, diplomatic talks, or de-escalation signals could cap at seven, while fresh attacks would push toward nine or more before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$973,941종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors seven countries at 32% implied probability for total US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters through mid-April—Yemen against Houthi rebels, Syria and Iraq targeting militias and ISIS remnants, Somalia for al-Shabaab strikes, Iran amid the February-launched joint US-Israeli campaign now in ceasefire, and Venezuela following January incursions against Maduro-linked networks. The tight race with eight (24%) and nine (14%) stems from uncertainty over escalation: potential new airstrikes on Iranian proxies in additional nations like Nigeria or Lebanon, counternarcotics operations expanding to Mexico or Colombia cartels, or responses to North Korean provocations. Congressional oversight, diplomatic talks, or de-escalation signals could cap at seven, while fresh attacks would push toward nine or more before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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