Trader consensus prices a modest 17% chance of a US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican soil by December 31, the leading outcome, reflecting escalated rhetoric and covert actions short of qualifying overt military operations. A May 12 CNN report detailed CIA facilitation of deadly attacks on mid-level cartel members inside Mexico since 2025, including a March highway assassination, but US and Mexican officials denied lethal agency involvement, falling outside market criteria for announced aerial impacts on terrestrial territory. Recent US airstrikes on Pacific narco-trafficking vessels drew Mexican rebukes, while President Trump's designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and the White House's May National Drug Control Strategy emphasize all tools short of ground incursions. Mexico's operations, like the February killing of Jalisco leader El Mencho, signal cooperation amid fentanyl pressures and tariff threats, tempering near-term escalation risks ahead of year-end policy deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$3,354,675 거래량
2026.12.31
12월 31일
17%
$3,354,675 거래량
12월 31일
$626,213 거래량
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices a modest 17% chance of a US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican soil by December 31, the leading outcome, reflecting escalated rhetoric and covert actions short of qualifying overt military operations. A May 12 CNN report detailed CIA facilitation of deadly attacks on mid-level cartel members inside Mexico since 2025, including a March highway assassination, but US and Mexican officials denied lethal agency involvement, falling outside market criteria for announced aerial impacts on terrestrial territory. Recent US airstrikes on Pacific narco-trafficking vessels drew Mexican rebukes, while President Trump's designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and the White House's May National Drug Control Strategy emphasize all tools short of ground incursions. Mexico's operations, like the February killing of Jalisco leader El Mencho, signal cooperation amid fentanyl pressures and tariff threats, tempering near-term escalation risks ahead of year-end policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
거래량
$3,354,675종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices a modest 17% chance of a US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican soil by December 31, the leading outcome, reflecting escalated rhetoric and covert actions short of qualifying overt military operations. A May 12 CNN report detailed CIA facilitation of deadly attacks on mid-level cartel members inside Mexico since 2025, including a March highway assassination, but US and Mexican officials denied lethal agency involvement, falling outside market criteria for announced aerial impacts on terrestrial territory. Recent US airstrikes on Pacific narco-trafficking vessels drew Mexican rebukes, while President Trump's designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and the White House's May National Drug Control Strategy emphasize all tools short of ground incursions. Mexico's operations, like the February killing of Jalisco leader El Mencho, signal cooperation amid fentanyl pressures and tariff threats, tempering near-term escalation risks ahead of year-end policy deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$3,354,675종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a modest 17% chance of a US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican soil by December 31, the leading outcome, reflecting escalated rhetoric and covert actions short of qualifying overt military operations. A May 12 CNN report detailed CIA facilitation of deadly attacks on mid-level cartel members inside Mexico since 2025, including a March highway assassination, but US and Mexican officials denied lethal agency involvement, falling outside market criteria for announced aerial impacts on terrestrial territory. Recent US airstrikes on Pacific narco-trafficking vessels drew Mexican rebukes, while President Trump's designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and the White House's May National Drug Control Strategy emphasize all tools short of ground incursions. Mexico's operations, like the February killing of Jalisco leader El Mencho, signal cooperation amid fentanyl pressures and tariff threats, tempering near-term escalation risks ahead of year-end policy deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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