Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily on the other side. Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District has remained under Republican control for more than a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness in the Little Rock area. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican victory, reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean, Hill's established fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major polling shifts or external events since the primaries. The 12.5% Democratic probability aligns with historical patterns where challengers have struggled to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,280 거래량
87%
Democratic Party
$5,476 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily on the other side. Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District has remained under Republican control for more than a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness in the Little Rock area. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican victory, reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean, Hill's established fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major polling shifts or external events since the primaries. The 12.5% Democratic probability aligns with historical patterns where challengers have struggled to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$7,756종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily on the other side. Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District has remained under Republican control for more than a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness in the Little Rock area. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican victory, reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean, Hill's established fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major polling shifts or external events since the primaries. The 12.5% Democratic probability aligns with historical patterns where challengers have struggled to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,756종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily on the other side. Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District has remained under Republican control for more than a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness in the Little Rock area. Traders assign an 87% implied probability to a Republican victory, reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean, Hill's established fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of major polling shifts or external events since the primaries. The 12.5% Democratic probability aligns with historical patterns where challengers have struggled to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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