The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년 이전의 또 다른 미국 부채 하향 조정?
2027년 이전의 또 다른 미국 부채 하향 조정?
$10,721 거래량
$10,721 거래량
2026.12.31
$10,721 거래량
$10,721 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
거래량
$10,721종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$10,721종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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