Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability of no further US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies following prior adjustments—Fitch's AA+/Stable affirmed April 30, 2026, despite projecting general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP in 2026–27 and debt exceeding 120% of GDP by year-end. Moody's Aa1 and S&P's AA+ ratings have held post-2025 revisions amid elevated fiscal deficits ($1.9 trillion projected for FY2026 per CBO) and gross debt nearing $39 trillion against a $41.1 trillion ceiling raised in July 2025. Absent brinkmanship or recession, traders discount near-term catalysts like debt limit exhaustion or midterm fiscal gridlock, pricing resilience in Treasury demand and growth. Key watchpoints include Q2 debt trajectory and FY2027 budget negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년 이전의 또 다른 미국 부채 하향 조정?
2027년 이전의 또 다른 미국 부채 하향 조정?
$10,028 거래량
$10,028 거래량
2026.12.31
$10,028 거래량
$10,028 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability of no further US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies following prior adjustments—Fitch's AA+/Stable affirmed April 30, 2026, despite projecting general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP in 2026–27 and debt exceeding 120% of GDP by year-end. Moody's Aa1 and S&P's AA+ ratings have held post-2025 revisions amid elevated fiscal deficits ($1.9 trillion projected for FY2026 per CBO) and gross debt nearing $39 trillion against a $41.1 trillion ceiling raised in July 2025. Absent brinkmanship or recession, traders discount near-term catalysts like debt limit exhaustion or midterm fiscal gridlock, pricing resilience in Treasury demand and growth. Key watchpoints include Q2 debt trajectory and FY2027 budget negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
거래량
$10,028종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability of no further US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies following prior adjustments—Fitch's AA+/Stable affirmed April 30, 2026, despite projecting general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP in 2026–27 and debt exceeding 120% of GDP by year-end. Moody's Aa1 and S&P's AA+ ratings have held post-2025 revisions amid elevated fiscal deficits ($1.9 trillion projected for FY2026 per CBO) and gross debt nearing $39 trillion against a $41.1 trillion ceiling raised in July 2025. Absent brinkmanship or recession, traders discount near-term catalysts like debt limit exhaustion or midterm fiscal gridlock, pricing resilience in Treasury demand and growth. Key watchpoints include Q2 debt trajectory and FY2027 budget negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$10,028종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability of no further US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies following prior adjustments—Fitch's AA+/Stable affirmed April 30, 2026, despite projecting general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP in 2026–27 and debt exceeding 120% of GDP by year-end. Moody's Aa1 and S&P's AA+ ratings have held post-2025 revisions amid elevated fiscal deficits ($1.9 trillion projected for FY2026 per CBO) and gross debt nearing $39 trillion against a $41.1 trillion ceiling raised in July 2025. Absent brinkmanship or recession, traders discount near-term catalysts like debt limit exhaustion or midterm fiscal gridlock, pricing resilience in Treasury demand and growth. Key watchpoints include Q2 debt trajectory and FY2027 budget negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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