Persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal 2026 and debt held by the public climbing toward 120% of GDP by 2036, have already prompted rating adjustments. Moody’s downgrade to Aa1 in May 2025, following S&P and Fitch moves to AA+, left all major agencies below AAA with stable outlooks, while Scope’s October 2025 cut to AA– reflected similar concerns without triggering further action. The 76.5% market-implied probability of no additional downgrade before 2027 embeds trader consensus that the absence of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025 supports rating stability through the period, though sustained primary deficits above 2% of GDP could test that view at future review dates.