The 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting stems primarily from the April 30 Governing Council decision to hold rates at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks. April euro-area headline inflation reached 3%, fueled by energy price surges tied to Middle East tensions, leading to explicit policy discussions of tightening and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 2.6%. This hawkish data-dependent tilt has shifted trader consensus toward action unless energy prices ease sharply, though the 12% odds of no change reflect lingering uncertainty around growth impacts and incoming prints ahead of the announcement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,130 거래량
$356,130 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
25 bps Increase
87%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$356,130 거래량
$356,130 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$65,996 거래량
<1%
No change
$75,862 거래량
12%
25 bps Increase
$87,784 거래량
87%
50+ bps increase
$65,930 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting stems primarily from the April 30 Governing Council decision to hold rates at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks. April euro-area headline inflation reached 3%, fueled by energy price surges tied to Middle East tensions, leading to explicit policy discussions of tightening and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 2.6%. This hawkish data-dependent tilt has shifted trader consensus toward action unless energy prices ease sharply, though the 12% odds of no change reflect lingering uncertainty around growth impacts and incoming prints ahead of the announcement.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$356,130종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting stems primarily from the April 30 Governing Council decision to hold rates at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks. April euro-area headline inflation reached 3%, fueled by energy price surges tied to Middle East tensions, leading to explicit policy discussions of tightening and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 2.6%. This hawkish data-dependent tilt has shifted trader consensus toward action unless energy prices ease sharply, though the 12% odds of no change reflect lingering uncertainty around growth impacts and incoming prints ahead of the announcement.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$356,130종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 87% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 11 meeting stems primarily from the April 30 Governing Council decision to hold rates at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks. April euro-area headline inflation reached 3%, fueled by energy price surges tied to Middle East tensions, leading to explicit policy discussions of tightening and upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 2.6%. This hawkish data-dependent tilt has shifted trader consensus toward action unless energy prices ease sharply, though the 12% odds of no change reflect lingering uncertainty around growth impacts and incoming prints ahead of the announcement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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