Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability of no ECB rate change in June 2026, reflecting the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility at 2.00% amid stable labor markets with euro area unemployment at a low 6.2%. However, a 34% chance of a 25 basis point increase stems from March 2026 CPI surging to 2.6%—above the 2% target—driven by energy cost spikes from Iran conflict fallout, prompting ECB President Lagarde to signal readiness for hikes if pressures persist. Major banks like JPMorgan now forecast June and September tightening, shifting from earlier calls, while low cut odds (under 1%) underscore resilient growth and upward inflation revisions. Key catalysts include April CPI data and pre-June policy meetings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트No change 58%
25 bps Increase 34%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$16,356 거래량
$16,356 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
58%
25 bps Increase
34%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 58%
25 bps Increase 34%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
$16,356 거래량
$16,356 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$2,784 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,555 거래량
<1%
No change
$3,639 거래량
58%
25 bps Increase
$3,622 거래량
34%
50+ bps increase
$3,756 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability of no ECB rate change in June 2026, reflecting the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility at 2.00% amid stable labor markets with euro area unemployment at a low 6.2%. However, a 34% chance of a 25 basis point increase stems from March 2026 CPI surging to 2.6%—above the 2% target—driven by energy cost spikes from Iran conflict fallout, prompting ECB President Lagarde to signal readiness for hikes if pressures persist. Major banks like JPMorgan now forecast June and September tightening, shifting from earlier calls, while low cut odds (under 1%) underscore resilient growth and upward inflation revisions. Key catalysts include April CPI data and pre-June policy meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$16,356종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability of no ECB rate change in June 2026, reflecting the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility at 2.00% amid stable labor markets with euro area unemployment at a low 6.2%. However, a 34% chance of a 25 basis point increase stems from March 2026 CPI surging to 2.6%—above the 2% target—driven by energy cost spikes from Iran conflict fallout, prompting ECB President Lagarde to signal readiness for hikes if pressures persist. Major banks like JPMorgan now forecast June and September tightening, shifting from earlier calls, while low cut odds (under 1%) underscore resilient growth and upward inflation revisions. Key catalysts include April CPI data and pre-June policy meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$16,356종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability of no ECB rate change in June 2026, reflecting the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility at 2.00% amid stable labor markets with euro area unemployment at a low 6.2%. However, a 34% chance of a 25 basis point increase stems from March 2026 CPI surging to 2.6%—above the 2% target—driven by energy cost spikes from Iran conflict fallout, prompting ECB President Lagarde to signal readiness for hikes if pressures persist. Major banks like JPMorgan now forecast June and September tightening, shifting from earlier calls, while low cut odds (under 1%) underscore resilient growth and upward inflation revisions. Key catalysts include April CPI data and pre-June policy meetings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문