On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched airstrikes and a special operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Operation Absolute Resolve—the first direct U.S. military intervention in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion. This regime change prompted international reactions, a transitional government, and U.S. pledges to oversee oil infrastructure rebuilding amid threats of further strikes if leaders deviate. Diplomatic ties were reestablished March 5, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizing transition monitoring. Trader sentiment reflects debate over whether the January action meets strict "invasion" criteria like ground troop occupation, leaving markets like Polymarket's unresolved for later dates; upcoming congressional hearings and potential escalation signals could shift probabilities.