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政治·最高裁判所

サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？

Market icon
政治·最高裁判所

サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？

$32,707 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$32,707 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$9,759 Vol.

2%

12月31日

$7,867 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Speculation about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's potential retirement persists without any official announcement or formal steps, driven primarily by February reports on his forthcoming book release scheduled for October 6, 2026—the day after the Court's new term begins—and his age of 75 ahead of his April 1 birthday. These rumors, amplified in prediction markets and social media discussions through mid-March, reflect strategic calculations to allow a presidential nomination and Senate confirmation while maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority before the November midterms. Alito remains active, issuing a solo dissent on March 27 in a supervised release case. The current October Term ends in late June or early July, a traditional window for retirement announcements, though historical patterns show justices often serve into their late 70s or beyond absent health issues.

Speculation about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's potential retirement persists without any official announcement or formal steps, driven primarily by February reports on his forthcoming book release scheduled for October 6, 2026—the day after the Court's new term begins—and his age of 75 ahead of his April 1 birthday. These rumors, amplified in prediction markets and social media discussions through mid-March, reflect strategic calculations to allow a presidential nomination and Senate confirmation while maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority before the November midterms. Alito remains active, issuing a solo dissent on March 27 in a supervised release case. The current October Term ends in late June or early July, a traditional window for retirement announcements, though historical patterns show justices often serve into their late 70s or beyond absent health issues.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Speculation about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's potential retirement persists without any official announcement or formal steps, driven primarily by February reports on his forthcoming book release scheduled for October 6, 2026—the day after the Court's new term begins—and his age of 75 ahead of his April 1 birthday. These rumors, amplified in prediction markets and social media discussions through mid-March, reflect strategic calculations to allow a presidential nomination and Senate confirmation while maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority before the November midterms. Alito remains active, issuing a solo dissent on March 27 in a supervised release case. The current October Term ends in late June or early July, a traditional window for retirement announcements, though historical patterns show justices often serve into their late 70s or beyond absent health issues.

Speculation about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's potential retirement persists without any official announcement or formal steps, driven primarily by February reports on his forthcoming book release scheduled for October 6, 2026—the day after the Court's new term begins—and his age of 75 ahead of his April 1 birthday. These rumors, amplified in prediction markets and social media discussions through mid-March, reflect strategic calculations to allow a presidential nomination and Senate confirmation while maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority before the November midterms. Alito remains active, issuing a solo dissent on March 27 in a supervised release case. The current October Term ends in late June or early July, a traditional window for retirement announcements, though historical patterns show justices often serve into their late 70s or beyond absent health issues.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で49%、次いで「3月31日」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、49¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に49%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？」は$32.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 17, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で49%であり、市場がこの結果に49%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3月31日」で2%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「サミュエル・アリートは...までに引退を発表しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。