Market icon
政治·DHS

DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？

Market icon
政治·DHS

DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

4月30日以降 57.0%

4月13日〜16日 12.5%

4月21日～24日 12.1%

4月17日～20日 11.8%

Polymarket

$485,108 Vol.

4月30日以降 57.0%

4月13日〜16日 12.5%

4月21日～24日 12.1%

4月17日～20日 11.8%

Polymarket

$485,108 Vol.

4月1日より前

$32,181 Vol.

1%

4月1日～4日

$2,965 Vol.

2%

4月5日〜8日

$2,885 Vol.

2%

4月9日～12日

$2,439 Vol.

2%

4月13日〜16日

$8,709 Vol.

13%

4月17日～20日

$387,463 Vol.

12%

4月21日～24日

$37,525 Vol.

12%

4月25日～28日

$2,863 Vol.

2%

4月29日〜30日

$2,849 Vol.

1%

4月30日以降

$5,228 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 57% implied probability that the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown will extend beyond April 30, driven by deepening partisan gridlock in Congress over appropriations tied to ICE and CBP reforms. The funding lapse, which began February 14 and became the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history at 44 days as of March 29, has seen the House pass three funding bills—most recently on March 26—only for them to stall in the Senate, while Senate Democrats' March 27 proposal to fund most DHS operations excluding immigration enforcement was rejected by Republicans. Airport chaos from TSA understaffing mounts pressure, but with negotiators deadlocked on enforcement limits, body cameras, and officer ID rules, and Congress facing recess, early- and mid-April resolutions appear unlikely absent a breakthrough.

Trader consensus prices a 57% implied probability that the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown will extend beyond April 30, driven by deepening partisan gridlock in Congress over appropriations tied to ICE and CBP reforms. The funding lapse, which began February 14 and became the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history at 44 days as of March 29, has seen the House pass three funding bills—most recently on March 26—only for them to stall in the Senate, while Senate Democrats' March 27 proposal to fund most DHS operations excluding immigration enforcement was rejected by Republicans. Airport chaos from TSA understaffing mounts pressure, but with negotiators deadlocked on enforcement limits, body cameras, and officer ID rules, and Congress facing recess, early- and mid-April resolutions appear unlikely absent a breakthrough.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 57% implied probability that the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown will extend beyond April 30, driven by deepening partisan gridlock in Congress over appropriations tied to ICE and CBP reforms. The funding lapse, which began February 14 and became the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history at 44 days as of March 29, has seen the House pass three funding bills—most recently on March 26—only for them to stall in the Senate, while Senate Democrats' March 27 proposal to fund most DHS operations excluding immigration enforcement was rejected by Republicans. Airport chaos from TSA understaffing mounts pressure, but with negotiators deadlocked on enforcement limits, body cameras, and officer ID rules, and Congress facing recess, early- and mid-April resolutions appear unlikely absent a breakthrough.

Trader consensus prices a 57% implied probability that the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown will extend beyond April 30, driven by deepening partisan gridlock in Congress over appropriations tied to ICE and CBP reforms. The funding lapse, which began February 14 and became the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history at 44 days as of March 29, has seen the House pass three funding bills—most recently on March 26—only for them to stall in the Senate, while Senate Democrats' March 27 proposal to fund most DHS operations excluding immigration enforcement was rejected by Republicans. Airport chaos from TSA understaffing mounts pressure, but with negotiators deadlocked on enforcement limits, body cameras, and officer ID rules, and Congress facing recess, early- and mid-April resolutions appear unlikely absent a breakthrough.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？」はPolymarket上の10個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4月30日以降」で57%、次いで「4月13日〜16日」が13%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、57¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に57%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？」は$485.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 26, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている10個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「4月30日以降」で57%であり、市場がこの結果に57%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「4月13日〜16日」で13%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「DHSのシャットダウンはいつ終了しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。