Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the current effective rate of approximately 10% as estimated by Wharton and USITC data through early 2026. This positioning stems from the February Supreme Court ruling invalidating broad IEEPA tariffs, prompting a pivot to targeted Section 301 duties and a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, alongside suspensions of reciprocal escalations to 34% until November. Recent constructive Paris talks between USTR Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and China's He Lifeng further stabilized expectations ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit starting March 31. Late-breaking executive orders, congressional action, or summit breakdowns could shift rates higher, though such moves remain unlikely given negotiation momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日10
5〜15% 96.7%
15～25％ 2.5%
25〜35％ <1%
5%未満 <1%
$884,481 Vol.
$884,481 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
5%未満
<1%
5〜15%
97%
15～25％
3%
25〜35％
<1%
35％以上
<1%
5〜15% 96.7%
15～25％ 2.5%
25〜35％ <1%
5%未満 <1%
$884,481 Vol.
$884,481 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
5%未満
$76,465 Vol.
<1%
5〜15%
$116,346 Vol.
97%
15～25％
$437,346 Vol.
3%
25〜35％
$141,815 Vol.
<1%
35％以上
$112,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the current effective rate of approximately 10% as estimated by Wharton and USITC data through early 2026. This positioning stems from the February Supreme Court ruling invalidating broad IEEPA tariffs, prompting a pivot to targeted Section 301 duties and a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, alongside suspensions of reciprocal escalations to 34% until November. Recent constructive Paris talks between USTR Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and China's He Lifeng further stabilized expectations ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit starting March 31. Late-breaking executive orders, congressional action, or summit breakdowns could shift rates higher, though such moves remain unlikely given negotiation momentum.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
音量
$884,481終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the current effective rate of approximately 10% as estimated by Wharton and USITC data through early 2026. This positioning stems from the February Supreme Court ruling invalidating broad IEEPA tariffs, prompting a pivot to targeted Section 301 duties and a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, alongside suspensions of reciprocal escalations to 34% until November. Recent constructive Paris talks between USTR Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and China's He Lifeng further stabilized expectations ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit starting March 31. Late-breaking executive orders, congressional action, or summit breakdowns could shift rates higher, though such moves remain unlikely given negotiation momentum.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
音量
$884,481終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the current effective rate of approximately 10% as estimated by Wharton and USITC data through early 2026. This positioning stems from the February Supreme Court ruling invalidating broad IEEPA tariffs, prompting a pivot to targeted Section 301 duties and a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, alongside suspensions of reciprocal escalations to 34% until November. Recent constructive Paris talks between USTR Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and China's He Lifeng further stabilized expectations ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit starting March 31. Late-breaking executive orders, congressional action, or summit breakdowns could shift rates higher, though such moves remain unlikely given negotiation momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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