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政治·関税

3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？

Market icon
政治·関税

3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？

10

5〜15% 97.6%

15～25％ 2.1%

25〜35％ <1%

5%未満 <1%

Polymarket

$1,147,155 Vol.

5〜15% 97.6%

15～25％ 2.1%

25〜35％ <1%

5%未満 <1%

Polymarket

$1,147,155 Vol.

5%未満

$80,996 Vol.

<1%

5〜15%

$262,765 Vol.

98%

15～25％

$536,748 Vol.

2%

25〜35％

$145,711 Vol.

<1%

35％以上

$120,935 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「5〜15%」で98%、次いで「15～25％」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、98¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に98%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？」は$1.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 21, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「5〜15%」で98%であり、市場がこの結果に98%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「15～25％」で2%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「3月31日の米国の中国に対する関税率は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。