Trader consensus on Polymarket prices modest turnout of 600,000–1.5 million voters for the May 26 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with the 0.6–0.9 million range leading at 37%, reflecting historical patterns of 60–70% turnout drops from primary to runoff due to voter fatigue and fewer races on the ballot. The March 3 primary saw record Republican participation around 2.2 million amid a crowded field where no candidate cleared 50%, splitting the GOP base between establishment and hard-right factions and dampening unified enthusiasm. Keeping odds clustered tightly are balanced campaign spending, Paxton's edge in internal polls absent a Trump endorsement, and anticipation of early voting starting mid-May; separation could emerge from a presidential endorsement, debate performances, or intensified get-out-the-vote drives in key urban and suburban counties.