The snap general election on November 29, called after legislative defeats on housing measures amid widespread protests, has intensified mobilization around affordability and related policy stakes, keeping implied probabilities clustered in the 66-70% turnout range. Recent polling averages and early forecasts indicate elevated engagement relative to 2023, driven by the compressed campaign timeline, expanded electorate including new voters abroad, and competing appeals from PP-led conservatives and PSOE progressives. Polarization on immigration, rents, and coalition dynamics adds uncertainty, with historical precedents showing snap votes can boost participation but also risk fatigue if key blocs fail to turn out. Scheduled debates and regional rallies in coming weeks could further shift sentiment ahead of election night.
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