Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日5,500-6,000 100.0%
<5,000 <1%
5,000-5,500 <1%
6,000-6,500 <1%
$7,266 Vol.
$7,266 Vol.
2026/03/31
<5,000
No
5,000-5,500
No
5,500-6,000
Yes
6,000-6,500
No
6,500-7,000
No
7,000-7,500
No
7,500-8,000
No
>8,000
No
5,500-6,000 100.0%
<5,000 <1%
5,000-5,500 <1%
6,000-6,500 <1%
$7,266 Vol.
$7,266 Vol.
2026/03/31
<5,000
$1,386 Vol.
No
5,000-5,500
$495 Vol.
No
5,500-6,000
$1,061 Vol.
Yes
6,000-6,500
$1,300 Vol.
No
6,500-7,000
$1,428 Vol.
No
7,000-7,500
$803 Vol.
No
7,500-8,000
$148 Vol.
No
>8,000
$644 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$7,266終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
音量
$7,266終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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