Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for an imminent reveal, pricing just an 8.8% implied probability for a new Half-Life game announcement by March 31 amid persistent but unverified datamining leaks from Valve's Dota 2 update last week referencing "HLX" codename and advanced particle effects. Odds climb to 40% by June 30, fueled by longstanding rumors of HLX as a Steam Machine launch title in spring 2026, echoing Valve's history of surprise drops like Half-Life: Alyx after years of silence. No official statements from Valve distinguish these as speculation, with key catalysts including potential Steam Deck 2 or hardware events that could spotlight franchise momentum. Entertainment unpredictability reigns, as leaks have teased without delivery since 2021.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新しいハーフライフゲームまでに... ？
新しいハーフライフゲームまでに... ？
$10,986 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
2026年3月31日
5%
2026年6月30日
23%
$10,986 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$305 Vol.
5%
2026年6月30日
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for an imminent reveal, pricing just an 8.8% implied probability for a new Half-Life game announcement by March 31 amid persistent but unverified datamining leaks from Valve's Dota 2 update last week referencing "HLX" codename and advanced particle effects. Odds climb to 40% by June 30, fueled by longstanding rumors of HLX as a Steam Machine launch title in spring 2026, echoing Valve's history of surprise drops like Half-Life: Alyx after years of silence. No official statements from Valve distinguish these as speculation, with key catalysts including potential Steam Deck 2 or hardware events that could spotlight franchise momentum. Entertainment unpredictability reigns, as leaks have teased without delivery since 2021.
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ET
音量
$10,986終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for an imminent reveal, pricing just an 8.8% implied probability for a new Half-Life game announcement by March 31 amid persistent but unverified datamining leaks from Valve's Dota 2 update last week referencing "HLX" codename and advanced particle effects. Odds climb to 40% by June 30, fueled by longstanding rumors of HLX as a Steam Machine launch title in spring 2026, echoing Valve's history of surprise drops like Half-Life: Alyx after years of silence. No official statements from Valve distinguish these as speculation, with key catalysts including potential Steam Deck 2 or hardware events that could spotlight franchise momentum. Entertainment unpredictability reigns, as leaks have teased without delivery since 2021.
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$10,986終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for an imminent reveal, pricing just an 8.8% implied probability for a new Half-Life game announcement by March 31 amid persistent but unverified datamining leaks from Valve's Dota 2 update last week referencing "HLX" codename and advanced particle effects. Odds climb to 40% by June 30, fueled by longstanding rumors of HLX as a Steam Machine launch title in spring 2026, echoing Valve's history of surprise drops like Half-Life: Alyx after years of silence. No official statements from Valve distinguish these as speculation, with key catalysts including potential Steam Deck 2 or hardware events that could spotlight franchise momentum. Entertainment unpredictability reigns, as leaks have teased without delivery since 2021.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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