Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability for no worldwide megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, rooted in the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS records showing only five instrumentally verified since 1900 amid vast tectonic plate areas. No anomalous seismic swarms, strain accumulation spikes, or foreshock patterns appear in real-time USGS monitoring of key subduction zones like Cascadia, Sumatra, or the Japan Trench, despite recent moderate activity such as Japan's January M7.6 Noto quake, which experts deem unrelated to megathrust rupture risks. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen multi-segment fault failure, though probabilities remain near-baseline lows; ongoing USGS global data feeds and aftershock analyses will inform any changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までにメガクエイク？
3月31日までにメガクエイク？
はい
$114,294 Vol.
$114,294 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$114,294 Vol.
$114,294 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability for no worldwide megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, rooted in the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS records showing only five instrumentally verified since 1900 amid vast tectonic plate areas. No anomalous seismic swarms, strain accumulation spikes, or foreshock patterns appear in real-time USGS monitoring of key subduction zones like Cascadia, Sumatra, or the Japan Trench, despite recent moderate activity such as Japan's January M7.6 Noto quake, which experts deem unrelated to megathrust rupture risks. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen multi-segment fault failure, though probabilities remain near-baseline lows; ongoing USGS global data feeds and aftershock analyses will inform any changes.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$114,294終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability for no worldwide megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, rooted in the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS records showing only five instrumentally verified since 1900 amid vast tectonic plate areas. No anomalous seismic swarms, strain accumulation spikes, or foreshock patterns appear in real-time USGS monitoring of key subduction zones like Cascadia, Sumatra, or the Japan Trench, despite recent moderate activity such as Japan's January M7.6 Noto quake, which experts deem unrelated to megathrust rupture risks. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen multi-segment fault failure, though probabilities remain near-baseline lows; ongoing USGS global data feeds and aftershock analyses will inform any changes.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$114,294終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability for no worldwide megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, rooted in the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS records showing only five instrumentally verified since 1900 amid vast tectonic plate areas. No anomalous seismic swarms, strain accumulation spikes, or foreshock patterns appear in real-time USGS monitoring of key subduction zones like Cascadia, Sumatra, or the Japan Trench, despite recent moderate activity such as Japan's January M7.6 Noto quake, which experts deem unrelated to megathrust rupture risks. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen multi-segment fault failure, though probabilities remain near-baseline lows; ongoing USGS global data feeds and aftershock analyses will inform any changes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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