Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS data—by June 30, 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally amid vast tectonic variability. No qualifying quake has struck since market inception, despite recent M7+ activity including a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, neither revised upward after 24-hour checks. Short-term seismic forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics, with current USGS monitoring showing no anomalous strain buildup on major subduction zones. Odds could shift with new ruptures, but historical patterns favor continuation of subdued M8+ activity; watch daily significant earthquake updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6月30日までにメガクエイク？
6月30日までにメガクエイク？
はい
$37,848 Vol.
$37,848 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$37,848 Vol.
$37,848 Vol.
2026/06/30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS data—by June 30, 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally amid vast tectonic variability. No qualifying quake has struck since market inception, despite recent M7+ activity including a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, neither revised upward after 24-hour checks. Short-term seismic forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics, with current USGS monitoring showing no anomalous strain buildup on major subduction zones. Odds could shift with new ruptures, but historical patterns favor continuation of subdued M8+ activity; watch daily significant earthquake updates.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$37,848終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS data—by June 30, 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally amid vast tectonic variability. No qualifying quake has struck since market inception, despite recent M7+ activity including a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, neither revised upward after 24-hour checks. Short-term seismic forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics, with current USGS monitoring showing no anomalous strain buildup on major subduction zones. Odds could shift with new ruptures, but historical patterns favor continuation of subdued M8+ activity; watch daily significant earthquake updates.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$37,848終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater per USGS data—by June 30, 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally amid vast tectonic variability. No qualifying quake has struck since market inception, despite recent M7+ activity including a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, neither revised upward after 24-hour checks. Short-term seismic forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics, with current USGS monitoring showing no anomalous strain buildup on major subduction zones. Odds could shift with new ruptures, but historical patterns favor continuation of subdued M8+ activity; watch daily significant earthquake updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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