Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated on March 6 that the risk of direct military clash with Israel remains "very low," highlighting activated coordination channels between militaries to avert misunderstandings or accidental incidents in shared theaters like Syria. This de-escalation signal amid broader regional tensions—including Israel's operations against Iranian proxies and Turkish criticisms of Gaza policy—drives trader consensus implying 79.5% odds against a clash before 2027. Despite rhetorical barbs from President Erdogan and past frictions over Hamas support and Syrian airstrikes near Turkish positions, NATO membership deters Turkey from escalation, while Israel prioritizes Iran threats; no direct engagements have materialized in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$90,029 Vol.
$90,029 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$90,029 Vol.
$90,029 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated on March 6 that the risk of direct military clash with Israel remains "very low," highlighting activated coordination channels between militaries to avert misunderstandings or accidental incidents in shared theaters like Syria. This de-escalation signal amid broader regional tensions—including Israel's operations against Iranian proxies and Turkish criticisms of Gaza policy—drives trader consensus implying 79.5% odds against a clash before 2027. Despite rhetorical barbs from President Erdogan and past frictions over Hamas support and Syrian airstrikes near Turkish positions, NATO membership deters Turkey from escalation, while Israel prioritizes Iran threats; no direct engagements have materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$90,029終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated on March 6 that the risk of direct military clash with Israel remains "very low," highlighting activated coordination channels between militaries to avert misunderstandings or accidental incidents in shared theaters like Syria. This de-escalation signal amid broader regional tensions—including Israel's operations against Iranian proxies and Turkish criticisms of Gaza policy—drives trader consensus implying 79.5% odds against a clash before 2027. Despite rhetorical barbs from President Erdogan and past frictions over Hamas support and Syrian airstrikes near Turkish positions, NATO membership deters Turkey from escalation, while Israel prioritizes Iran threats; no direct engagements have materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$90,029終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated on March 6 that the risk of direct military clash with Israel remains "very low," highlighting activated coordination channels between militaries to avert misunderstandings or accidental incidents in shared theaters like Syria. This de-escalation signal amid broader regional tensions—including Israel's operations against Iranian proxies and Turkish criticisms of Gaza policy—drives trader consensus implying 79.5% odds against a clash before 2027. Despite rhetorical barbs from President Erdogan and past frictions over Hamas support and Syrian airstrikes near Turkish positions, NATO membership deters Turkey from escalation, while Israel prioritizes Iran threats; no direct engagements have materialized in the past 30 days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問