Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Závecz Research, conducted March 23–28 and reported April 1, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz among decided voters—TISZA at 51–56%, Fidesz at 37–38%—with leads expanding to 13–19 points. This momentum, fueled by TISZA's anti-corruption platform and calls to unlock frozen EU funds, has traders pricing a simple majority as plausible in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and compensatory list seats. However, the 75% "No" odds on a constitutional supermajority (133 of 199 seats) reflect the steep threshold, Fidesz's rural strongholds, undecided voters (20–26%), and government-aligned polls showing narrower gaps, with the April 12 vote just days away.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/04/12
新規
新規
2026/04/12
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Závecz Research, conducted March 23–28 and reported April 1, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz among decided voters—TISZA at 51–56%, Fidesz at 37–38%—with leads expanding to 13–19 points. This momentum, fueled by TISZA's anti-corruption platform and calls to unlock frozen EU funds, has traders pricing a simple majority as plausible in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and compensatory list seats. However, the 75% "No" odds on a constitutional supermajority (133 of 199 seats) reflect the steep threshold, Fidesz's rural strongholds, undecided voters (20–26%), and government-aligned polls showing narrower gaps, with the April 12 vote just days away.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
音量
$6,386終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Závecz Research, conducted March 23–28 and reported April 1, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz among decided voters—TISZA at 51–56%, Fidesz at 37–38%—with leads expanding to 13–19 points. This momentum, fueled by TISZA's anti-corruption platform and calls to unlock frozen EU funds, has traders pricing a simple majority as plausible in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and compensatory list seats. However, the 75% "No" odds on a constitutional supermajority (133 of 199 seats) reflect the steep threshold, Fidesz's rural strongholds, undecided voters (20–26%), and government-aligned polls showing narrower gaps, with the April 12 vote just days away.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
音量
$6,386終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Research Centre and Závecz Research, conducted March 23–28 and reported April 1, show Péter Magyar's TISZA party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz among decided voters—TISZA at 51–56%, Fidesz at 37–38%—with leads expanding to 13–19 points. This momentum, fueled by TISZA's anti-corruption platform and calls to unlock frozen EU funds, has traders pricing a simple majority as plausible in Hungary's mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and compensatory list seats. However, the 75% "No" odds on a constitutional supermajority (133 of 199 seats) reflect the steep threshold, Fidesz's rural strongholds, undecided voters (20–26%), and government-aligned polls showing narrower gaps, with the April 12 vote just days away.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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