Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 15°C or higher on April 15, backed by real-time observational data from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), showing midday readings already at 14.5°C under mild westerly winds and partial cloud cover. Ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS align on afternoon peaks of 16°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer continental air, exceeding the mid-April climatological average of 13°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs confirming no disruptive cold fronts. Realistic challenges include sudden convective showers or increased cloudiness capping peaks below 15°C, though steering patterns and current trajectories render this improbable as the day progresses toward evening observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
15°C or higher 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$116,248 Vol.
$116,248 Vol.
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
Yes
15°C or higher 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$116,248 Vol.
$116,248 Vol.
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 15°C or higher on April 15, backed by real-time observational data from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), showing midday readings already at 14.5°C under mild westerly winds and partial cloud cover. Ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS align on afternoon peaks of 16°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer continental air, exceeding the mid-April climatological average of 13°C. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs confirming no disruptive cold fronts. Realistic challenges include sudden convective showers or increased cloudiness capping peaks below 15°C, though steering patterns and current trajectories render this improbable as the day progresses toward evening observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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