Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$57,910 Vol.
$57,910 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$57,910 Vol.
$57,910 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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