Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$84,633 Vol.
$84,633 Vol.
2026/04/16
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$84,633 Vol.
$84,633 Vol.
2026/04/16
10°C or below
$3,736 Vol.
No
11°C
$8,074 Vol.
No
12°C
$16,395 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$7,157 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,607 Vol.
No
15°C
$18,849 Vol.
No
16°C
$17,015 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,498 Vol.
No
18°C
$849 Vol.
No
19°C
$813 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$641 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
音量
$84,633終了日
2026/04/16マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$84,633終了日
2026/04/16マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 16, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by verified NOAA observations from automated weather stations confirming this maximum amid a cold snap. Official data from Turkey's Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) corroborates regional highs around 14–16°C at urban stations like Eyüpsultan and Fatih, but the market's resolution source—NOAA's calibrated measurements at the airport—pegged the peak at 12°C under mostly cloudy skies with northerly winds suppressing daytime heating. This aligns with forecasts of temperatures 2–4°C below April norms (typically 16–17°C), influenced by persistent cool air masses over the eastern Mediterranean. Realistic challenges are minimal post-event but could include rare data revisions from quality control audits or discrepancies if alternative stations (e.g., LTBA vs. LTFM) are scrutinized, though resolution criteria fix NOAA Istanbul Airport as authoritative.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問