Eurozone headline inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February and driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions—has propelled Polymarket trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 9-10, 2026 meeting, following the March 19 policy hold at 2.00%. ECB staff projections now see 2026 inflation averaging 2.6%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs to forecast hikes in April and June amid fading de-escalation hopes. No-change odds at 24% reflect balanced risks if energy prices stabilize, while cut probabilities below 1% underscore hawkish repricing. Traders eye April CPI and the upcoming ECB meeting for trajectory confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 75%
No change 24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
新規
新規
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
24%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
75%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
4%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 75%
No change 24%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
新規
新規
2026/06/11
50+ bps decrease
$835 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$813 Vol.
1%
No change
$1,206 Vol.
24%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$1,579 Vol.
75%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$1,235 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone headline inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February and driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions—has propelled Polymarket trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 9-10, 2026 meeting, following the March 19 policy hold at 2.00%. ECB staff projections now see 2026 inflation averaging 2.6%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs to forecast hikes in April and June amid fading de-escalation hopes. No-change odds at 24% reflect balanced risks if energy prices stabilize, while cut probabilities below 1% underscore hawkish repricing. Traders eye April CPI and the upcoming ECB meeting for trajectory confirmation.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$5,668終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone headline inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February and driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions—has propelled Polymarket trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 9-10, 2026 meeting, following the March 19 policy hold at 2.00%. ECB staff projections now see 2026 inflation averaging 2.6%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs to forecast hikes in April and June amid fading de-escalation hopes. No-change odds at 24% reflect balanced risks if energy prices stabilize, while cut probabilities below 1% underscore hawkish repricing. Traders eye April CPI and the upcoming ECB meeting for trajectory confirmation.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
音量
$5,668終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eurozone headline inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February and driven by oil shocks from Middle East tensions—has propelled Polymarket trader consensus to a 75% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 9-10, 2026 meeting, following the March 19 policy hold at 2.00%. ECB staff projections now see 2026 inflation averaging 2.6%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs to forecast hikes in April and June amid fading de-escalation hopes. No-change odds at 24% reflect balanced risks if energy prices stabilize, while cut probabilities below 1% underscore hawkish repricing. Traders eye April CPI and the upcoming ECB meeting for trajectory confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問