The March 31 deadline has passed without OpenAI declaring a full outage for ChatGPT on its official status page, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for "No" as real capital aligns on confirmed service continuity. Minor incidents, such as elevated failures for ChatGPT Enterprise and Edu workspaces via SSO on March 31, were resolved within hours and classified as partial rather than total platform downtime, underscoring the AI infrastructure's resilience powered by Microsoft Azure scaling. OpenAI's track record of rapid recovery from degraded performance reinforces this positioning, with no large language model-wide disruptions reported in late March. While resolution disputes over "full outage" criteria remain a slim theoretical risk, no regulatory or technical escalations materialized to challenge the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$18,258 Vol.
$18,258 Vol.
2026/03/31
$18,258 Vol.
$18,258 Vol.
2026/03/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The March 31 deadline has passed without OpenAI declaring a full outage for ChatGPT on its official status page, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for "No" as real capital aligns on confirmed service continuity. Minor incidents, such as elevated failures for ChatGPT Enterprise and Edu workspaces via SSO on March 31, were resolved within hours and classified as partial rather than total platform downtime, underscoring the AI infrastructure's resilience powered by Microsoft Azure scaling. OpenAI's track record of rapid recovery from degraded performance reinforces this positioning, with no large language model-wide disruptions reported in late March. While resolution disputes over "full outage" criteria remain a slim theoretical risk, no regulatory or technical escalations materialized to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
音量
$18,258終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The March 31 deadline has passed without OpenAI declaring a full outage for ChatGPT on its official status page, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for "No" as real capital aligns on confirmed service continuity. Minor incidents, such as elevated failures for ChatGPT Enterprise and Edu workspaces via SSO on March 31, were resolved within hours and classified as partial rather than total platform downtime, underscoring the AI infrastructure's resilience powered by Microsoft Azure scaling. OpenAI's track record of rapid recovery from degraded performance reinforces this positioning, with no large language model-wide disruptions reported in late March. While resolution disputes over "full outage" criteria remain a slim theoretical risk, no regulatory or technical escalations materialized to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$18,258終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The March 31 deadline has passed without OpenAI declaring a full outage for ChatGPT on its official status page, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for "No" as real capital aligns on confirmed service continuity. Minor incidents, such as elevated failures for ChatGPT Enterprise and Edu workspaces via SSO on March 31, were resolved within hours and classified as partial rather than total platform downtime, underscoring the AI infrastructure's resilience powered by Microsoft Azure scaling. OpenAI's track record of rapid recovery from degraded performance reinforces this positioning, with no large language model-wide disruptions reported in late March. While resolution disputes over "full outage" criteria remain a slim theoretical risk, no regulatory or technical escalations materialized to challenge the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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