Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 99.5% implied probability to BTS's "Arirang" first-week album sales falling under 3 million, driven by the absence of any official announcement, release, or promotion from HYBE for such a title amid the group's military enlistment hiatus—most members remain in service until mid-2025 at earliest. K-pop chart kingpins like BTS routinely crush 3-5 million first-week units on Circle Chart with full comebacks fueled by massive pre-orders and ARMY mobilization, but without a drop date or teasers, sales default to negligible. An upset into 3m+ territory would demand an unheralded digital surprise or chart anomaly, defying current industry silence and historical patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日BTS「Arirang」ファーストウィークアルバムセール?
BTS「Arirang」ファーストウィークアルバムセール?
300万枚未満 99.4%
600万枚以上 1.1%
550万〜600万 <1%
300万〜350万 <1%
$377,927 Vol.
$377,927 Vol.
300万枚未満
99%
300万〜350万
<1%
350万~400万
<1%
400万~450万
<1%
450万〜500万
<1%
500万~550万
<1%
550万〜600万
<1%
600万枚以上
1%
300万枚未満 99.4%
600万枚以上 1.1%
550万〜600万 <1%
300万〜350万 <1%
$377,927 Vol.
$377,927 Vol.
300万枚未満
99%
300万〜350万
<1%
350万~400万
<1%
400万~450万
<1%
450万〜500万
<1%
500万~550万
<1%
550万〜600万
<1%
600万枚以上
1%
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for BTS's album 'Arirang', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'Arirang' has not been released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
マーケット開始日: Feb 3, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 99.5% implied probability to BTS's "Arirang" first-week album sales falling under 3 million, driven by the absence of any official announcement, release, or promotion from HYBE for such a title amid the group's military enlistment hiatus—most members remain in service until mid-2025 at earliest. K-pop chart kingpins like BTS routinely crush 3-5 million first-week units on Circle Chart with full comebacks fueled by massive pre-orders and ARMY mobilization, but without a drop date or teasers, sales default to negligible. An upset into 3m+ territory would demand an unheralded digital surprise or chart anomaly, defying current industry silence and historical patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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