Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for an Apple iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year annual September launch cadence since 2007, with no historical skips beyond naming anomalies like the absent iPhone 9. Recent April 2026 supply chain leaks from credible analysts detail iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramps, new colors such as Dark Cherry and Light Blue, potential C1 modem integration, and a debut foldable iPhone Ultra—solidifying expectations for a fall rollout despite rumors of delaying the base model to spring 2027 for a premium-focused event. Realistic challenges include unprecedented supply disruptions, economic headwinds curbing demand, or strategic pivots amid foldable competition, though these remain low-probability scenarios given Apple's hardware reliability track record. Watch for WWDC hints or analyst updates ahead of the September announcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
$85,759 Vol.
$85,759 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$85,759 Vol.
$85,759 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for an Apple iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year annual September launch cadence since 2007, with no historical skips beyond naming anomalies like the absent iPhone 9. Recent April 2026 supply chain leaks from credible analysts detail iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramps, new colors such as Dark Cherry and Light Blue, potential C1 modem integration, and a debut foldable iPhone Ultra—solidifying expectations for a fall rollout despite rumors of delaying the base model to spring 2027 for a premium-focused event. Realistic challenges include unprecedented supply disruptions, economic headwinds curbing demand, or strategic pivots amid foldable competition, though these remain low-probability scenarios given Apple's hardware reliability track record. Watch for WWDC hints or analyst updates ahead of the September announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$85,759Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for an Apple iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year annual September launch cadence since 2007, with no historical skips beyond naming anomalies like the absent iPhone 9. Recent April 2026 supply chain leaks from credible analysts detail iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramps, new colors such as Dark Cherry and Light Blue, potential C1 modem integration, and a debut foldable iPhone Ultra—solidifying expectations for a fall rollout despite rumors of delaying the base model to spring 2027 for a premium-focused event. Realistic challenges include unprecedented supply disruptions, economic headwinds curbing demand, or strategic pivots amid foldable competition, though these remain low-probability scenarios given Apple's hardware reliability track record. Watch for WWDC hints or analyst updates ahead of the September announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$85,759Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for an Apple iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken 19-year annual September launch cadence since 2007, with no historical skips beyond naming anomalies like the absent iPhone 9. Recent April 2026 supply chain leaks from credible analysts detail iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramps, new colors such as Dark Cherry and Light Blue, potential C1 modem integration, and a debut foldable iPhone Ultra—solidifying expectations for a fall rollout despite rumors of delaying the base model to spring 2027 for a premium-focused event. Realistic challenges include unprecedented supply disruptions, economic headwinds curbing demand, or strategic pivots amid foldable competition, though these remain low-probability scenarios given Apple's hardware reliability track record. Watch for WWDC hints or analyst updates ahead of the September announcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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