Trader consensus prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 6.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the US intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing is not committed to a Taiwan invasion that year, citing amphibious assault risks, economic deterrents, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA naval deployments—over 100 vessels near Taiwan's coast in early April amid US Middle East distractions—and drills simulating nuclear scenarios have heightened gray-zone tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, yet yielded no direct US-China kinetic incidents or blockades. Diplomatic channels remain active, with Paris trade talks paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit, underscoring mutual de-escalation incentives despite rhetorical barbs over arms sales and transits. Late-breaking escalations like territorial incursions could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$79,942 Vol.
$79,942 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$79,942 Vol.
$79,942 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 6.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the US intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing is not committed to a Taiwan invasion that year, citing amphibious assault risks, economic deterrents, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA naval deployments—over 100 vessels near Taiwan's coast in early April amid US Middle East distractions—and drills simulating nuclear scenarios have heightened gray-zone tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, yet yielded no direct US-China kinetic incidents or blockades. Diplomatic channels remain active, with Paris trade talks paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit, underscoring mutual de-escalation incentives despite rhetorical barbs over arms sales and transits. Late-breaking escalations like territorial incursions could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$79,942Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 6.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the US intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing is not committed to a Taiwan invasion that year, citing amphibious assault risks, economic deterrents, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA naval deployments—over 100 vessels near Taiwan's coast in early April amid US Middle East distractions—and drills simulating nuclear scenarios have heightened gray-zone tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, yet yielded no direct US-China kinetic incidents or blockades. Diplomatic channels remain active, with Paris trade talks paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit, underscoring mutual de-escalation incentives despite rhetorical barbs over arms sales and transits. Late-breaking escalations like territorial incursions could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,942Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 6.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the US intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing is not committed to a Taiwan invasion that year, citing amphibious assault risks, economic deterrents, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA naval deployments—over 100 vessels near Taiwan's coast in early April amid US Middle East distractions—and drills simulating nuclear scenarios have heightened gray-zone tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, yet yielded no direct US-China kinetic incidents or blockades. Diplomatic channels remain active, with Paris trade talks paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit, underscoring mutual de-escalation incentives despite rhetorical barbs over arms sales and transits. Late-breaking escalations like territorial incursions could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti