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Tecnologia·AI

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Market icon
Tecnologia·AI

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

giu 30

dic 31

giu 30

dic 31

14% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
14% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that no Chinese company will claim the top artificial intelligence model by December 31, 2026, driven by persistent U.S. leadership on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, and Google's Gemini 3 Pro hold the top spots with Elo scores 30–80 points ahead of Alibaba's Qwen3.6 and DeepSeek V3 as of mid-April. Recent Stanford AI Index data shows the U.S.-China performance gap narrowing to 39 Elo points from over 300 in 2023, fueled by cost-efficient Chinese open-source releases like Zhipu GLM-5 and Moonshot Kimi K2.5, yet U.S. export controls on advanced chips—tightened April 3—constrain China's scaling amid Huawei Ascend optimizations. Key catalysts include DeepSeek V4's late-April launch and anticipated U.S. frontier models, with traders pricing low odds of a surprise Chinese leap despite rapid iteration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.

Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,469
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability that no Chinese company will claim the top artificial intelligence model by December 31, 2026, driven by persistent U.S. leadership on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, OpenAI's GPT-5 variants, and Google's Gemini 3 Pro hold the top spots with Elo scores 30–80 points ahead of Alibaba's Qwen3.6 and DeepSeek V3 as of mid-April. Recent Stanford AI Index data shows the U.S.-China performance gap narrowing to 39 Elo points from over 300 in 2023, fueled by cost-efficient Chinese open-source releases like Zhipu GLM-5 and Moonshot Kimi K2.5, yet U.S. export controls on advanced chips—tightened April 3—constrain China's scaling amid Huawei Ascend optimizations. Key catalysts include DeepSeek V4's late-April launch and anticipated U.S. frontier models, with traders pricing low odds of a surprise Chinese leap despite rapid iteration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.

Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,469
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Domande frequenti

"Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 14% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 14¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 14% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 2, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?" è 14% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 14% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.