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Politica·Primarie

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politica·Primarie

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Christian Menefee 80.3%

Al Green 19.4%

Gretchen Brown 1.3%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$21,353 Vol.

Christian Menefee 80.3%

Al Green 19.4%

Gretchen Brown 1.3%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$21,353 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$13,303 Vol.

80%

Al Green

$3,492 Vol.

19%

Gretchen Brown

$2,408 Vol.

1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,150 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee leads trader consensus at 80.3% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his 46%-44% edge over veteran Rep. Al Green in the March 3 primary despite Green's long incumbency. Pre-primary polling, such as a February Houston Public Media survey showing Menefee ahead 52%-28%, underscored his momentum from a recent special election victory amid redistricting that pitted the two Democrats against each other in this safe blue Houston district. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports reveal Menefee raising $1 million—$600,000 post-February—outpacing Green, who loaned himself $200,000, while endorsements like Rep. LaSimba Gray-Simmons' bolster his position. Eliminated primary challengers Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trail at negligible odds. Early voting begins soon, with turnout key in this low-visibility runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,353
Data di fine
26 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee leads trader consensus at 80.3% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his 46%-44% edge over veteran Rep. Al Green in the March 3 primary despite Green's long incumbency. Pre-primary polling, such as a February Houston Public Media survey showing Menefee ahead 52%-28%, underscored his momentum from a recent special election victory amid redistricting that pitted the two Democrats against each other in this safe blue Houston district. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports reveal Menefee raising $1 million—$600,000 post-February—outpacing Green, who loaned himself $200,000, while endorsements like Rep. LaSimba Gray-Simmons' bolster his position. Eliminated primary challengers Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trail at negligible odds. Early voting begins soon, with turnout key in this low-visibility runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,353
Data di fine
26 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Christian Menefee" a 80%, seguito da "Al Green" a 19%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 80¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 80% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" ha generato $21.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 4, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" è "Christian Menefee" a 80%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 80% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Al Green" a 19%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.