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Politica·Primarie

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politica·Primarie

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Chalifoux 34%

Justin Story 22%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,453 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux 34%

Justin Story 22%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,453 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux

$735 Vol.

51%

Justin Story

$7,527 Vol.

22%

Marcus Carter

$289 Vol.

8%

Jorge Malavet

$1,901 Vol.

7%

Howard Steven Rance

$0 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux holds trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the FL-09 Republican primary due to his superior fundraising—over $2 million cash on hand entering 2026—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary and mounting a competitive general election challenge against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails at 21.5%, supported by his profile as a retired Marine Corps officer and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to local voters in this closed primary on August 18. Lower odds for Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance reflect limited visibility and resources among the crowded field, amid ongoing discussions of potential redistricting that could reshape district lines. No public polls have emerged, leaving skin-in-the-game assessments to drive positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,453
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux holds trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the FL-09 Republican primary due to his superior fundraising—over $2 million cash on hand entering 2026—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary and mounting a competitive general election challenge against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails at 21.5%, supported by his profile as a retired Marine Corps officer and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to local voters in this closed primary on August 18. Lower odds for Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance reflect limited visibility and resources among the crowded field, amid ongoing discussions of potential redistricting that could reshape district lines. No public polls have emerged, leaving skin-in-the-game assessments to drive positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,453
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Domande frequenti

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Thomas Chalifoux" a 51%, seguito da "Justin Story" a 22%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 51¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 51% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" ha generato $10.5K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 23, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" è "Thomas Chalifoux" a 51%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 51% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Justin Story" a 22%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.