The Texas U.S. Senate race stays closely contested with trader consensus implying a 54.5% Republican win probability over Democrats at 45.5%, driven by the GOP primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton—where a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Paxton ahead 48-45 among likely Republican primary voters amid internal party divisions and President Trump's pending endorsement. Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico, who won a competitive March primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans in recent Texas Politics Project and University of Houston surveys but struggles to fully consolidate Black voters and faces resurfaced controversies over past remarks. Texas's Republican-leaning midterm electorate, historical base turnout advantages, and fundraising gaps keep odds tight; a Paxton nomination or base mobilization could widen the GOP edge, while Talarico's record $27 million Q1 haul sustains Democratic viability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato del Texas
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato del Texas
$199,237 Vol.
$199,237 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
55%
Democratico
46%
$199,237 Vol.
$199,237 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
$110,391 Vol.
55%
Democratico
$88,845 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Texas U.S. Senate race stays closely contested with trader consensus implying a 54.5% Republican win probability over Democrats at 45.5%, driven by the GOP primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton—where a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Paxton ahead 48-45 among likely Republican primary voters amid internal party divisions and President Trump's pending endorsement. Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico, who won a competitive March primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans in recent Texas Politics Project and University of Houston surveys but struggles to fully consolidate Black voters and faces resurfaced controversies over past remarks. Texas's Republican-leaning midterm electorate, historical base turnout advantages, and fundraising gaps keep odds tight; a Paxton nomination or base mobilization could widen the GOP edge, while Talarico's record $27 million Q1 haul sustains Democratic viability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$199,237Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Texas U.S. Senate race stays closely contested with trader consensus implying a 54.5% Republican win probability over Democrats at 45.5%, driven by the GOP primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton—where a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Paxton ahead 48-45 among likely Republican primary voters amid internal party divisions and President Trump's pending endorsement. Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico, who won a competitive March primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans in recent Texas Politics Project and University of Houston surveys but struggles to fully consolidate Black voters and faces resurfaced controversies over past remarks. Texas's Republican-leaning midterm electorate, historical base turnout advantages, and fundraising gaps keep odds tight; a Paxton nomination or base mobilization could widen the GOP edge, while Talarico's record $27 million Q1 haul sustains Democratic viability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$199,237Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Texas U.S. Senate race stays closely contested with trader consensus implying a 54.5% Republican win probability over Democrats at 45.5%, driven by the GOP primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton—where a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Paxton ahead 48-45 among likely Republican primary voters amid internal party divisions and President Trump's pending endorsement. Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico, who won a competitive March primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans in recent Texas Politics Project and University of Houston surveys but struggles to fully consolidate Black voters and faces resurfaced controversies over past remarks. Texas's Republican-leaning midterm electorate, historical base turnout advantages, and fundraising gaps keep odds tight; a Paxton nomination or base mobilization could widen the GOP edge, while Talarico's record $27 million Q1 haul sustains Democratic viability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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