Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israel airstrikes in late 2025 and early 2026 that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites like Fordow and Natanz, significantly delaying uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire holds since early April, enabling direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on curbing the program—US demands a 20-year enrichment halt versus Iran's five-year offer—amid IAEA February reports confirming no diversion to bombs despite a 400+ kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. Absent covert advances or diplomatic collapse, structural setbacks and restraint under sanctions render a pre-2027 test unlikely, though escalation risks persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$527,201 Vol.
$527,201 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$527,201 Vol.
$527,201 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israel airstrikes in late 2025 and early 2026 that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites like Fordow and Natanz, significantly delaying uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire holds since early April, enabling direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on curbing the program—US demands a 20-year enrichment halt versus Iran's five-year offer—amid IAEA February reports confirming no diversion to bombs despite a 400+ kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. Absent covert advances or diplomatic collapse, structural setbacks and restraint under sanctions render a pre-2027 test unlikely, though escalation risks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$527,201Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israel airstrikes in late 2025 and early 2026 that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites like Fordow and Natanz, significantly delaying uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire holds since early April, enabling direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on curbing the program—US demands a 20-year enrichment halt versus Iran's five-year offer—amid IAEA February reports confirming no diversion to bombs despite a 400+ kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. Absent covert advances or diplomatic collapse, structural setbacks and restraint under sanctions render a pre-2027 test unlikely, though escalation risks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$527,201Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israel airstrikes in late 2025 and early 2026 that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites like Fordow and Natanz, significantly delaying uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire holds since early April, enabling direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on curbing the program—US demands a 20-year enrichment halt versus Iran's five-year offer—amid IAEA February reports confirming no diversion to bombs despite a 400+ kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. Absent covert advances or diplomatic collapse, structural setbacks and restraint under sanctions render a pre-2027 test unlikely, though escalation risks persist.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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