US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending estimated timelines for weapon-grade uranium production and weaponization. US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 place Iran roughly nine to twelve months from a deliverable nuclear device, assuming full resumption of activities, while IAEA reports confirm restricted access, unverifiable stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium, and no verified weaponization steps. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including commitments to dilute material, further constrain rapid progress. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92.2 percent implied probability that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026.