Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and February 2026 disrupted enrichment infrastructure and access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles, with intelligence assessments indicating no resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026. Limited IAEA inspections since mid-2025 and ongoing US-Iran negotiations have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire framework, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and deferring detailed nuclear talks—including enrichment limits and stockpile management—for a subsequent 60-day period. These verified setbacks and diplomatic channels have shaped trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and political barriers to weaponization before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$948,850 Vol.
$948,850 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$948,850 Vol.
$948,850 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and February 2026 disrupted enrichment infrastructure and access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles, with intelligence assessments indicating no resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026. Limited IAEA inspections since mid-2025 and ongoing US-Iran negotiations have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire framework, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and deferring detailed nuclear talks—including enrichment limits and stockpile management—for a subsequent 60-day period. These verified setbacks and diplomatic channels have shaped trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and political barriers to weaponization before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$948,850Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and February 2026 disrupted enrichment infrastructure and access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles, with intelligence assessments indicating no resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026. Limited IAEA inspections since mid-2025 and ongoing US-Iran negotiations have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire framework, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and deferring detailed nuclear talks—including enrichment limits and stockpile management—for a subsequent 60-day period. These verified setbacks and diplomatic channels have shaped trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and political barriers to weaponization before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$948,859Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and February 2026 disrupted enrichment infrastructure and access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles, with intelligence assessments indicating no resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026. Limited IAEA inspections since mid-2025 and ongoing US-Iran negotiations have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire framework, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and deferring detailed nuclear talks—including enrichment limits and stockpile management—for a subsequent 60-day period. These verified setbacks and diplomatic channels have shaped trader consensus that Iran faces significant technical and political barriers to weaponization before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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