Iowa's 4th congressional district has long favored Republican candidates, with the seat delivering consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles and rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement drew a competitive GOP primary that consolidated behind Chris McGowan after a key endorsement, leaving him unopposed on the November ballot. Democratic primary contenders, including David Dawson, emerged from a limited field with modest resources and visibility. Traders assign the Republican nominee overwhelming odds reflecting this structural advantage, historical turnout patterns in northwest Iowa, and absence of major polling shifts or external shocks through early August. A significant national wave, unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district has long favored Republican candidates, with the seat delivering consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles and rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement drew a competitive GOP primary that consolidated behind Chris McGowan after a key endorsement, leaving him unopposed on the November ballot. Democratic primary contenders, including David Dawson, emerged from a limited field with modest resources and visibility. Traders assign the Republican nominee overwhelming odds reflecting this structural advantage, historical turnout patterns in northwest Iowa, and absence of major polling shifts or external shocks through early August. A significant national wave, unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district has long favored Republican candidates, with the seat delivering consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles and rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement drew a competitive GOP primary that consolidated behind Chris McGowan after a key endorsement, leaving him unopposed on the November ballot. Democratic primary contenders, including David Dawson, emerged from a limited field with modest resources and visibility. Traders assign the Republican nominee overwhelming odds reflecting this structural advantage, historical turnout patterns in northwest Iowa, and absence of major polling shifts or external shocks through early August. A significant national wave, unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district has long favored Republican candidates, with the seat delivering consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles and rated solidly Republican by nonpartisan analysts. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement drew a competitive GOP primary that consolidated behind Chris McGowan after a key endorsement, leaving him unopposed on the November ballot. Democratic primary contenders, including David Dawson, emerged from a limited field with modest resources and visibility. Traders assign the Republican nominee overwhelming odds reflecting this structural advantage, historical turnout patterns in northwest Iowa, and absence of major polling shifts or external shocks through early August. A significant national wave, unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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